{"punk":8812,"name":"CryptoPunk #8812","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8812","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8812.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Frown","Earring","Shaved Head"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":30.6686,"usd":74313,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.1832,"high_eth":33.3732,"low_usd":68290,"high_usd":80866},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.8993,"high_eth":36.3163,"low_usd":62756,"high_usd":87997},"sigma_log":0.0845,"multiple_of_floor":1.0092,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.6686,"usd":74313,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.1832,"high_eth":33.3732,"low_usd":68290,"high_usd":80866},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.8993,"high_eth":36.3163,"low_usd":62756,"high_usd":87997},"sigma_log":0.0845,"multiple_of_floor":1.0092,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":40,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":40,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0758,"term":"attr:Shaved Head","label":"Shaved Head","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":12.5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":130,"date":"2021-08-29","block":13118567,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":40,"adjusted_eth":30.9859},{"eth":0,"date":"2021-09-01","block":13141124,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":273,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":68,"date":"2022-03-13","block":14375341,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":49,"adjusted_eth":29.653},{"eth":72.89,"date":"2022-03-20","block":14420683,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":158,"adjusted_eth":30.787},{"eth":32.5,"date":"2024-11-13","block":21181952,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":178,"adjusted_eth":30.0296},{"eth":43.888,"date":"2024-12-31","block":21524776,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":110,"adjusted_eth":36.3026},{"eth":0,"date":"2025-01-01","block":21532470,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":214,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":47,"date":"2025-07-20","block":22963047,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":22,"adjusted_eth":30.2292}],"comparables":[{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-08-19","punk":9335,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.6169,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-04-23","punk":9335,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4379,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39,"date":"2026-04-21","punk":4855,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":42.3289,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-04-10","punk":9110,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.5723,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.95,"date":"2026-04-08","punk":6188,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.143,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.29,"date":"2026-04-02","punk":6188,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2744,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.69,"date":"2026-02-05","punk":9335,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1929,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32,"date":"2026-01-20","punk":8135,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.7004,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0545,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Frown","sales_12m":40}],"summary":["Estimate 30.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.2 to 33.4 ETH, 2σ range 25.9 to 36.3 ETH, confidence High, as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 10:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Earring -2%, Shaved Head -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8812","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}