{"punk":883,"name":"CryptoPunk #883","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/883","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/883.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Black Lipstick","Earring","Pilot Helmet"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":59.1014,"usd":134375,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":42.432,"high_eth":82.3194,"low_usd":96475,"high_usd":187164},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.4642,"high_eth":114.6586,"low_usd":69264,"high_usd":260691},"sigma_log":0.3314,"multiple_of_floor":1.9448,"n1_eth":30.7154,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":58.3235,"usd":132606,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":41.8735,"high_eth":81.2359,"low_usd":95205,"high_usd":184700},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.0632,"high_eth":113.1494,"low_usd":68353,"high_usd":257260},"sigma_log":0.3314,"multiple_of_floor":1.9448,"n1_eth":30.3111,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":44,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":44,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":2.8,"beta":0.0274,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":53.2},{"pct":87.2,"beta":0.6271,"term":"attr:Pilot Helmet","label":"Pilot Helmet","sales_12m":5,"weighted_sales":1.5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.51,"date":"2017-07-06","block":3981264,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":23,"adjusted_eth":63.7288},{"eth":160,"date":"2021-08-03","block":12950346,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":338,"adjusted_eth":145.4061},{"eth":185,"date":"2022-07-17","block":15156851,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":239,"adjusted_eth":66.2703}],"comparables":[{"eth":33.8,"date":"2026-11-03","punk":1721,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.3441,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.7,"date":"2026-09-01","punk":2131,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7367,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.1899,"date":"2026-08-18","punk":2131,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9806,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.05,"date":"2026-08-04","punk":2131,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.4829,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-07-11","punk":2131,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3567,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.44,"date":"2026-07-02","punk":2131,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4309,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":100,"date":"2026-06-28","punk":2120,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":92.2769,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":41,"date":"2026-06-13","punk":7076,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.6021,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.6545,"type_multiple":{"sales":442,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0107,"median_multiple":1.0107},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Black Lipstick","sales_12m":95},{"attribute":"Earring","sales_12m":306}],"summary":["Estimate 59.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 42.4 to 82.3 ETH, 2σ range 30.5 to 115 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +3%, Pilot Helmet +87%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/883","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}