{"punk":8906,"name":"CryptoPunk #8906","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8906","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8906.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Hot Lipstick","Stringy Hair","Welding Goggles"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":39.735,"usd":96281,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.5645,"high_eth":45.679,"low_usd":83753,"high_usd":110684},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.0668,"high_eth":52.5121,"low_usd":72854,"high_usd":127241},"sigma_log":0.1394,"multiple_of_floor":1.3075,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","basis":"daily close"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":39.735,"usd":96281,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.5645,"high_eth":45.679,"low_usd":83753,"high_usd":110684},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.0668,"high_eth":52.5121,"low_usd":72854,"high_usd":127241},"sigma_log":0.1394,"multiple_of_floor":1.3075,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"daily close","as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","block":null,"eth":30.39,"punk":null,"public_asks":null,"age_minutes":57,"stale":false,"label":"as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"daily close","as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","block":null,"eth":30.39,"punk":null,"public_asks":null,"age_minutes":57,"stale":false,"label":"as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":2.8,"beta":0.0274,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":52.7},{"pct":-2.5,"beta":-0.0257,"term":"attr:Stringy Hair","label":"Stringy Hair","sales_12m":96,"weighted_sales":12.8},{"pct":29.3,"beta":0.2569,"term":"attr:Welding Goggles","label":"Welding Goggles","sales_12m":4,"weighted_sales":0.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":25,"date":"2021-01-30","block":11757069,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":139,"adjusted_eth":152.2545},{"eth":45,"date":"2021-02-21","block":11902833,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":25,"adjusted_eth":68.3775},{"eth":52,"date":"2021-03-15","block":12040102,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":76,"adjusted_eth":79.014},{"eth":60,"date":"2021-03-15","block":12045565,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":66,"adjusted_eth":91.17},{"eth":80,"date":"2023-01-12","block":16392468,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":145,"adjusted_eth":36.5594}],"comparables":[{"eth":27.1,"date":"2026-04-08","punk":5863,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.1529,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27,"date":"2026-04-05","punk":5863,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.5104,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":45.6366,"date":"2025-09-23","punk":5467,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8322,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48.39,"date":"2025-09-08","punk":1628,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3837,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":44.935,"date":"2025-08-28","punk":1628,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2477,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":44.44,"date":"2025-08-28","punk":1628,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.9255,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":51,"date":"2025-08-23","punk":8364,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0599,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":44.98,"date":"2025-03-31","punk":6481,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0954,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.2587,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Hot Lipstick","sales_12m":88}],"summary":["Estimate 39.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 34.6 to 45.7 ETH, 2σ range 30.1 to 52.5 ETH, confidence Low, as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +3%, Stringy Hair -3%, Welding Goggles +29%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8906","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}