{"punk":8907,"name":"CryptoPunk #8907","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8907","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8907.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Earring","Pink With Hat","Horned Rim Glasses"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":40.8125,"usd":92792,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.081,"high_eth":47.4803,"low_usd":79761,"high_usd":107953},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.1545,"high_eth":55.2375,"low_usd":68560,"high_usd":125590},"sigma_log":0.1513,"multiple_of_floor":1.343,"n1_eth":30.7154,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":40.2753,"usd":91571,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.6193,"high_eth":46.8554,"low_usd":78711,"high_usd":106532},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.7576,"high_eth":54.5105,"low_usd":67658,"high_usd":123937},"sigma_log":0.1513,"multiple_of_floor":1.343,"n1_eth":30.3111,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":2.8,"beta":0.0274,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":53.2},{"pct":29.3,"beta":0.2568,"term":"attr:Pink With Hat","label":"Pink With Hat","sales_12m":10,"weighted_sales":3}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":23.95,"date":"2021-02-17","block":11871679,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":50,"adjusted_eth":55.7656},{"eth":150,"date":"2021-08-28","block":13113668,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":52,"adjusted_eth":32.6696},{"eth":165,"date":"2021-09-16","block":13236067,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":95,"adjusted_eth":48.5132}],"comparables":[{"eth":30.008,"date":"2026-10-09","punk":3976,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.5786,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.99,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":2710,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0129,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":50,"date":"2026-06-27","punk":7090,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":46.1385,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.99,"date":"2026-04-04","punk":4214,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.2758,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.98,"date":"2026-04-04","punk":7663,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.2651,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.5,"date":"2026-02-05","punk":2710,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.5828,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.09,"date":"2025-12-08","punk":3976,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.98,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.71,"date":"2025-12-03","punk":3976,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.1653,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.2842,"type_multiple":{"sales":442,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0107,"median_multiple":1.0107},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Earring","sales_12m":306},{"attribute":"Horned Rim Glasses","sales_12m":50}],"summary":["Estimate 40.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 35.1 to 47.5 ETH, 2σ range 30.2 to 55.2 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +3%, Pink With Hat +29%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8907","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}