{"punk":8917,"name":"CryptoPunk #8917","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8917","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8917.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Gold Chain","Headband","Cigarette"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":28.9241,"usd":65763,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.2382,"high_eth":30.7144,"low_usd":61930,"high_usd":69833},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.6506,"high_eth":32.6155,"low_usd":58320,"high_usd":74155},"sigma_log":0.0601,"multiple_of_floor":0.9518,"n1_eth":30.7154,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":28.5434,"usd":64897,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.8797,"high_eth":30.3101,"low_usd":61114,"high_usd":68914},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.313,"high_eth":32.1862,"low_usd":57552,"high_usd":73179},"sigma_log":0.0601,"multiple_of_floor":0.9518,"n1_eth":30.3111,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":37,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":37,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":-3.7,"beta":-0.0375,"term":"attr:Headband","label":"Headband","sales_12m":48,"weighted_sales":5.1},{"pct":-2.2,"beta":-0.0225,"term":"attr:Cigarette","label":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110,"weighted_sales":14.3}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.44,"date":"2018-11-21","block":6746531,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":145,"adjusted_eth":105.6493},{"eth":50,"date":"2023-08-31","block":18037193,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":394,"adjusted_eth":31.11},{"eth":52.45,"date":"2023-11-08","block":18527576,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":300,"adjusted_eth":30.2495},{"eth":56.5,"date":"2023-11-23","block":18634540,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":88,"adjusted_eth":30.2632},{"eth":56.89,"date":"2024-01-03","block":18928139,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":283,"adjusted_eth":30.6362},{"eth":41.42,"date":"2025-04-11","block":22247310,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":200,"adjusted_eth":29.2279},{"eth":42.95,"date":"2025-04-22","block":22325474,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":249,"adjusted_eth":29.2943},{"eth":53.83,"date":"2025-07-29","block":23027660,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":179,"adjusted_eth":30.4712}],"comparables":[{"eth":32.47,"date":"2026-07-12","punk":6603,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0177,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.88,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":874,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3963,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":27.09,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":2278,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.5123,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":36,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":3859,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.9661,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.5,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":4075,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.8453,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.49,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":5931,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.6581,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33.6,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":4075,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.6372,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":38.69,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":9310,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.1269,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.0601,"type_multiple":{"sales":442,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0107,"median_multiple":1.0107},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Gold Chain","sales_12m":24}],"summary":["Estimate 28.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 27.2 to 30.7 ETH, 2σ range 25.7 to 32.6 ETH, confidence Low, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Headband -4%, Cigarette -2%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8917","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}