{"punk":8919,"name":"CryptoPunk #8919","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8919","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8919.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Shadow Beard","Do-rag","Big Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":32.03,"usd":77611,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.5618,"high_eth":34.7044,"low_usd":71631,"high_usd":84092},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.2838,"high_eth":37.602,"low_usd":66111,"high_usd":91113},"sigma_log":0.0802,"multiple_of_floor":1.054,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":32.03,"usd":77611,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.5618,"high_eth":34.7044,"low_usd":71631,"high_usd":84092},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.2838,"high_eth":37.602,"low_usd":66111,"high_usd":91113},"sigma_log":0.0802,"multiple_of_floor":1.054,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":31,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T06:04:23.000Z","block":26353897,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":31,"stale":false,"label":"as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-5.5,"beta":-0.0565,"term":"attr:Do-rag","label":"Do-rag","sales_12m":51,"weighted_sales":17.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.25,"date":"2019-09-28","block":8637335,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":33,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":0.35,"date":"2019-11-23","block":8987880,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":130,"adjusted_eth":29.5458},{"eth":0.36,"date":"2019-11-25","block":8999140,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":17,"adjusted_eth":29.5686},{"eth":0.75,"date":"2020-07-11","block":10441078,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":35,"adjusted_eth":25.6096},{"eth":0.98,"date":"2020-07-15","block":10464954,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":58,"adjusted_eth":33.4631},{"eth":1.19,"date":"2020-09-11","block":10840762,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":24,"adjusted_eth":26.2059},{"eth":21,"date":"2021-07-11","block":12807343,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":194,"adjusted_eth":33.7845},{"eth":22.25,"date":"2021-07-18","block":12849273,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":228,"adjusted_eth":34.2368}],"comparables":[{"eth":39.69,"date":"2026-08-08","punk":9950,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.459,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42,"date":"2026-07-02","punk":3860,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.9243,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38,"date":"2026-04-01","punk":6749,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":40.8786,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.92,"date":"2026-03-19","punk":3860,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":34.5217,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.88,"date":"2026-03-04","punk":6749,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4386,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.75,"date":"2026-02-06","punk":9119,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.349,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31,"date":"2025-11-14","punk":4360,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.8985,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":47,"date":"2025-10-16","punk":7625,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.4694,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0111,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Shadow Beard","sales_12m":55},{"attribute":"Big Shades","sales_12m":81}],"summary":["Estimate 32.0 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.6 to 34.7 ETH, 2σ range 27.3 to 37.6 ETH, confidence High, as of 06:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 06:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Do-rag -6%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8919","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}