{"punk":8931,"name":"CryptoPunk #8931","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8931","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8931.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Shadow Beard","Do-rag","Vape","Small Shades"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":35.2481,"usd":80141,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.9379,"high_eth":38.9014,"low_usd":72615,"high_usd":88447},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.9385,"high_eth":42.9335,"low_usd":65795,"high_usd":97615},"sigma_log":0.0986,"multiple_of_floor":1.1599,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":34.7842,"usd":79086,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.5175,"high_eth":38.3894,"low_usd":71659,"high_usd":87283},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.5576,"high_eth":42.3684,"low_usd":64929,"high_usd":96330},"sigma_log":0.0986,"multiple_of_floor":1.1599,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":38,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":38,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10,"beta":0.0957,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":89.3},{"pct":-5.5,"beta":-0.0565,"term":"attr:Do-rag","label":"Do-rag","sales_12m":52,"weighted_sales":18}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":1.75,"date":"2020-05-27","block":10144877,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":115,"adjusted_eth":38.0308},{"eth":1.87,"date":"2020-05-27","block":10147865,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":185,"adjusted_eth":40.6386},{"eth":3.49,"date":"2020-09-20","block":10897475,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":185,"adjusted_eth":48.6814}],"comparables":[{"eth":31,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":3960,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.6676,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.49,"date":"2026-09-02","punk":4255,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.8947,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.69,"date":"2026-08-08","punk":9950,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.9659,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":41,"date":"2026-08-05","punk":8123,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.7883,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":45.5,"date":"2026-06-30","punk":2276,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":42.682,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.79,"date":"2026-06-28","punk":4255,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2576,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.8,"date":"2026-05-10","punk":8492,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7416,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.9,"date":"2026-05-01","punk":8492,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9105,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.085,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Shadow Beard","sales_12m":57},{"attribute":"Vape","sales_12m":51},{"attribute":"Small Shades","sales_12m":46}],"summary":["Estimate 35.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.9 to 38.9 ETH, 2σ range 28.9 to 42.9 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Do-rag -6%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8931","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}