{"punk":8934,"name":"CryptoPunk #8934","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8934","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8934.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Muttonchops","Police Cap","Horned Rim Glasses"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":34.6155,"usd":83876,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.7425,"high_eth":37.7487,"low_usd":76915,"high_usd":91468},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.1079,"high_eth":41.1654,"low_usd":70531,"high_usd":99747},"sigma_log":0.0866,"multiple_of_floor":1.139,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":34.6155,"usd":83876,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.7425,"high_eth":37.7487,"low_usd":76915,"high_usd":91468},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.1079,"high_eth":41.1654,"low_usd":70531,"high_usd":99747},"sigma_log":0.0866,"multiple_of_floor":1.139,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","block":26353297,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","block":26353297,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-9.3,"beta":-0.0973,"term":"attr:Muttonchops","label":"Muttonchops","sales_12m":48,"weighted_sales":15.7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.1,"date":"2017-11-22","block":4599204,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":4,"adjusted_eth":33.7667},{"eth":1.26,"date":"2019-06-14","block":7956548,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":94,"adjusted_eth":95.7285},{"eth":89,"date":"2022-03-12","block":14368942,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":25,"adjusted_eth":38.4192},{"eth":52,"date":"2024-03-22","block":19490223,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":217,"adjusted_eth":31.7644},{"eth":39.69,"date":"2024-12-24","block":21473784,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":107,"adjusted_eth":30.2376},{"eth":42.9398,"date":"2025-01-09","block":21586784,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":28,"adjusted_eth":35.9686}],"comparables":[{"eth":30,"date":"2026-01-22","punk":7582,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.4569,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2025-11-17","punk":7582,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.6006,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":56.05,"date":"2025-06-04","punk":1167,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.4447,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":110,"date":"2024-12-16","punk":6036,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":84.2252,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35.48,"date":"2024-11-15","punk":7582,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.3821,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":3391,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9803,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.26,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":9216,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.3401,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.5,"date":"2026-10-25","punk":9404,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.2116,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.0666,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Police Cap","sales_12m":29},{"attribute":"Horned Rim Glasses","sales_12m":50}],"summary":["Estimate 34.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.7 to 37.7 ETH, 2σ range 29.1 to 41.2 ETH, confidence Low, as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 04:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Muttonchops -9%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8934","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}