{"punk":8946,"name":"CryptoPunk #8946","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8946","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8946.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Rosy Cheeks","Bandana"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":31.5498,"usd":76448,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.0932,"high_eth":34.2139,"low_usd":70495,"high_usd":82903},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.8279,"high_eth":37.1029,"low_usd":65006,"high_usd":89903},"sigma_log":0.0811,"multiple_of_floor":1.0382,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":31.5498,"usd":76448,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.0932,"high_eth":34.2139,"low_usd":70495,"high_usd":82903},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.8279,"high_eth":37.1029,"low_usd":65006,"high_usd":89903},"sigma_log":0.0811,"multiple_of_floor":1.0382,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","block":26352999,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":49,"stale":false,"label":"as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T03:04:35.000Z","block":26352999,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":49,"stale":false,"label":"as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0357,"term":"attr:Bandana","label":"Bandana","sales_12m":63,"weighted_sales":14.1}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":1.4,"date":"2020-05-20","block":10105521,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":80,"adjusted_eth":51.8854},{"eth":1.92,"date":"2020-05-22","block":10116631,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":133,"adjusted_eth":58.3488},{"eth":5.5,"date":"2020-10-01","block":10970955,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":76,"adjusted_eth":33.7667},{"eth":16.5,"date":"2021-04-08","block":12200137,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":289,"adjusted_eth":25.4665},{"eth":21.5,"date":"2021-04-09","block":12204683,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":76,"adjusted_eth":34.3887},{"eth":28.5,"date":"2021-04-30","block":12344593,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":133,"adjusted_eth":42.0444}],"comparables":[{"eth":42.44,"date":"2025-03-24","punk":2362,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8553,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-10-14","punk":3378,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0508,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-09-26","punk":1481,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.5717,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":40.5,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":5581,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.1999,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":88.88,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":4746,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":83.289,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.89,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":4457,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3018,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.88,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":9065,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2527,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.9,"date":"2026-09-07","punk":2290,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3291,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.0262,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Rosy Cheeks","sales_12m":20}],"summary":["Estimate 31.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.1 to 34.2 ETH, 2σ range 26.8 to 37.1 ETH, confidence Low, as of 03:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 03:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Bandana -4%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8946","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}