{"punk":8950,"name":"CryptoPunk #8950","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8950","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8950.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Hot Lipstick","Knitted Cap","Cigarette","Nerd Glasses"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":31.2323,"usd":71011,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.5715,"high_eth":32.9864,"low_usd":67235,"high_usd":74999},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.999,"high_eth":34.839,"low_usd":63659,"high_usd":79211},"sigma_log":0.0546,"multiple_of_floor":1.0277,"n1_eth":30.7154,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":30.8212,"usd":70076,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.1823,"high_eth":32.5522,"low_usd":66350,"high_usd":74012},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.6305,"high_eth":34.3804,"low_usd":62821,"high_usd":78168},"sigma_log":0.0546,"multiple_of_floor":1.0277,"n1_eth":30.3111,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 4+","terms":[{"pct":4,"beta":0.0392,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":42.5},{"pct":-2.2,"beta":-0.0225,"term":"attr:Cigarette","label":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110,"weighted_sales":14.3}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 4+","seen":{"n":135,"cover1":0.6,"cover2":0.815,"bias_pct":-0.9,"within10":0.763,"within25":0.933,"MdALE_pct":4.5},"thin":false,"sigma":0.054,"selection":{"n":177,"cover1":0.712,"cover2":0.921,"bias_pct":-0.5,"within10":0.819,"within25":0.966,"MdALE_pct":3.4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.25,"date":"2017-08-21","block":4187144,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":34,"adjusted_eth":34.0795},{"eth":28,"date":"2021-07-30","block":12930035,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":255,"adjusted_eth":32.3966},{"eth":33,"date":"2021-07-31","block":12933881,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":91,"adjusted_eth":33}],"comparables":[{"eth":34.75,"date":"2026-01-04","punk":5770,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.5078,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":27.09,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":2278,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.5123,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29,"date":"2026-10-20","punk":2994,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":27.8129,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38.69,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":9310,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.1269,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.42,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":4065,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9808,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.2,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":9310,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2161,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.01,"date":"2026-05-15","punk":5032,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.083,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.01,"date":"2026-05-14","punk":5032,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0983,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0167,"type_multiple":{"sales":442,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0107,"median_multiple":1.0107},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Hot Lipstick","sales_12m":88},{"attribute":"Knitted Cap","sales_12m":49},{"attribute":"Nerd Glasses","sales_12m":64}],"summary":["Estimate 31.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.6 to 33.0 ETH, 2σ range 28.0 to 34.8 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (442 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +4%, Cigarette -2%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 4+ sales landed within ±3.4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8950","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}