{"punk":8951,"name":"CryptoPunk #8951","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8951","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8951.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Chinstrap","Do-rag","VR"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":44.5282,"usd":107895,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":37.2614,"high_eth":53.2121,"low_usd":90287,"high_usd":128937},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.1806,"high_eth":63.5896,"low_usd":75553,"high_usd":154083},"sigma_log":0.1782,"multiple_of_floor":1.4652,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":44.5282,"usd":107895,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":37.2614,"high_eth":53.2121,"low_usd":90287,"high_usd":128937},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.1806,"high_eth":63.5896,"low_usd":75553,"high_usd":154083},"sigma_log":0.1782,"multiple_of_floor":1.4652,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","block":26353598,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":36,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","block":26353598,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":36,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":88.8889,"ask_usd":198736,"z":3.88,"z_text":"3.9σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2024-11-18T02:48:11.000Z","days_listed":718},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":19.8,"beta":0.1805,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":25.7},{"pct":-5.3,"beta":-0.054,"term":"attr:Chinstrap","label":"Chinstrap","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":19.3},{"pct":-5.5,"beta":-0.0565,"term":"attr:Do-rag","label":"Do-rag","sales_12m":51,"weighted_sales":17.8},{"pct":22.5,"beta":0.2029,"term":"attr:VR","label":"VR","sales_12m":24,"weighted_sales":3.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":1,"date":"2020-04-13","block":9865881,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":36,"adjusted_eth":52.3966},{"eth":17.25,"date":"2021-02-17","block":11877287,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":142,"adjusted_eth":40.7009},{"eth":31.99,"date":"2021-03-14","block":12034944,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":31,"adjusted_eth":46.2941},{"eth":32.5,"date":"2021-07-16","block":12840564,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":98,"adjusted_eth":49.6319},{"eth":136.6,"date":"2021-11-13","block":13610107,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":38,"adjusted_eth":51.8909},{"eth":91.8,"date":"2022-06-26","block":15030552,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":407,"adjusted_eth":41.2815},{"eth":95,"date":"2022-07-30","block":15245269,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":75,"adjusted_eth":42.2083}],"comparables":[{"eth":33.01,"date":"2026-10-09","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.8569,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.67,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3878,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.29,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1959,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.99,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3802,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.88,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":3168,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.292,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.5,"date":"2026-08-28","punk":3168,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":30.0278,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32,"date":"2026-06-05","punk":3168,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.39,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.9,"date":"2026-06-05","punk":5887,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.295,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.3184,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 44.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 37.3 to 53.2 ETH, 2σ range 31.2 to 63.6 ETH, confidence Low, as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 05:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +20%, Chinstrap -5%, Do-rag -6%, VR +23%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8951","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}