{"punk":8970,"name":"CryptoPunk #8970","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8970","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8970.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Muttonchops","Mohawk Dark"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":27.3981,"usd":62293,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":24.4064,"high_eth":30.7565,"low_usd":55491,"high_usd":69929},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":21.7414,"high_eth":34.5265,"low_usd":49432,"high_usd":78500},"sigma_log":0.1156,"multiple_of_floor":0.9016,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":27.0375,"usd":61473,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":24.0852,"high_eth":30.3517,"low_usd":54761,"high_usd":69008},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":21.4552,"high_eth":34.0721,"low_usd":48781,"high_usd":77467},"sigma_log":0.1156,"multiple_of_floor":0.9016,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":102.4},{"pct":-9.3,"beta":-0.0973,"term":"attr:Muttonchops","label":"Muttonchops","sales_12m":48,"weighted_sales":15.8},{"pct":-7.6,"beta":-0.0795,"term":"attr:Mohawk Dark","label":"Mohawk Dark","sales_12m":53,"weighted_sales":13.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.7,"date":"2020-06-19","block":10294556,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":122,"adjusted_eth":21.2051},{"eth":1.14,"date":"2020-09-11","block":10840753,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":44,"adjusted_eth":24.7743},{"eth":3,"date":"2020-09-27","block":10943314,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":44,"adjusted_eth":27.5138},{"eth":5.94,"date":"2021-02-11","block":11836922,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":86,"adjusted_eth":29.1079},{"eth":13.78,"date":"2021-02-21","block":11899310,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":175,"adjusted_eth":20.6631},{"eth":14.9,"date":"2021-02-21","block":11902278,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":67,"adjusted_eth":22.3426},{"eth":35.8,"date":"2021-08-05","block":12964950,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":33,"adjusted_eth":24.1594},{"eth":38.98,"date":"2021-08-05","block":12965322,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":60,"adjusted_eth":26.3054},{"eth":53.89,"date":"2021-08-23","block":13081129,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":141,"adjusted_eth":23.8794},{"eth":78.5,"date":"2021-08-25","block":13094989,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":112,"adjusted_eth":29.8948},{"eth":76.47,"date":"2021-08-27","block":13104602,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"round-trip-30d","log_index":131,"adjusted_eth":24.9276},{"eth":82,"date":"2021-08-27","block":13107332,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"round-trip-30d","log_index":29,"adjusted_eth":26.7302},{"eth":89.47,"date":"2021-08-27","block":13107800,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":6,"adjusted_eth":29.1653},{"eth":93.47,"date":"2021-08-28","block":13111935,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":46,"adjusted_eth":20.3575}],"comparables":[{"eth":31.5,"date":"2026-06-30","punk":8062,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5491,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39,"date":"2025-12-22","punk":8408,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":43.351,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39,"date":"2025-06-30","punk":8062,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9977,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":3391,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5857,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.5,"date":"2026-10-25","punk":9404,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":28.8271,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.99,"date":"2026-10-16","punk":7608,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0129,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-10-11","punk":3739,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.9043,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-09-26","punk":1481,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1561,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.167,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 27.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 24.4 to 30.8 ETH, 2σ range 21.7 to 34.5 ETH, confidence High, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Muttonchops -9%, Mohawk Dark -8%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8970","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}