{"punk":8985,"name":"CryptoPunk #8985","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8985","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8985.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Gold Chain","Front Beard Dark","Do-rag","Eye Mask"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":29.6977,"usd":67521,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.9005,"high_eth":32.7857,"low_usd":61162,"high_usd":74543},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.3667,"high_eth":36.1949,"low_usd":55401,"high_usd":82294},"sigma_log":0.0989,"multiple_of_floor":0.9772,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.3068,"usd":66633,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.5464,"high_eth":32.3542,"low_usd":60357,"high_usd":73561},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":24.046,"high_eth":35.7185,"low_usd":54672,"high_usd":81211},"sigma_log":0.0989,"multiple_of_floor":0.9772,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":46,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":46,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0756,"term":"attr:Front Beard Dark","label":"Front Beard Dark","sales_12m":35,"weighted_sales":13.4},{"pct":-5.5,"beta":-0.0565,"term":"attr:Do-rag","label":"Do-rag","sales_12m":52,"weighted_sales":18}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[],"comparables":[{"eth":29.85,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":3797,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.8775,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.5,"date":"2026-09-05","punk":3797,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.95,"date":"2026-06-05","punk":9548,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9431,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40,"date":"2026-04-14","punk":8129,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":46.1562,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.25,"date":"2026-02-27","punk":4728,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4071,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.25,"date":"2026-02-20","punk":4728,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4429,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.88,"date":"2026-02-19","punk":4728,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0155,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":56,"date":"2025-08-05","punk":7668,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.6105,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0864,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Gold Chain","sales_12m":24},{"attribute":"Eye Mask","sales_12m":56}],"summary":["Estimate 29.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 26.9 to 32.8 ETH, 2σ range 24.4 to 36.2 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Front Beard Dark -7%, Do-rag -6%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8985","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}