{"punk":8992,"name":"CryptoPunk #8992","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8992","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8992.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Handlebars","Earring","Mohawk","Big Shades"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":28.6983,"usd":65249,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":25.7731,"high_eth":31.9555,"low_usd":58598,"high_usd":72655},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":23.1462,"high_eth":35.5823,"low_usd":52626,"high_usd":80901},"sigma_log":0.1075,"multiple_of_floor":0.9443,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":28.3206,"usd":64390,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":25.4339,"high_eth":31.5349,"low_usd":57827,"high_usd":71699},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":22.8415,"high_eth":35.114,"low_usd":51933,"high_usd":79836},"sigma_log":0.1075,"multiple_of_floor":0.9443,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":32.7195,"ask_usd":72975,"z":1.22,"z_text":"1.2σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2026-09-22T14:44:23.000Z","days_listed":44},"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-6.1,"beta":-0.0634,"term":"attr:Handlebars","label":"Handlebars","sales_12m":33,"weighted_sales":11.8},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":306,"weighted_sales":71.1},{"pct":-7.6,"beta":-0.0788,"term":"attr:Mohawk","label":"Mohawk","sales_12m":75,"weighted_sales":16}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":94.98,"date":"2022-06-19","block":14991517,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":272,"adjusted_eth":42.7374},{"eth":47,"date":"2025-10-01","block":23483015,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":182,"adjusted_eth":29.8061},{"eth":42.5,"date":"2025-10-18","block":23602867,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":295,"adjusted_eth":29.8565},{"eth":30.6,"date":"2026-07-19","block":25568727,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":6,"adjusted_eth":28.6869}],"comparables":[{"eth":28.5,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":9132,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9963,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-10-29","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0306,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-10-14","punk":3378,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.629,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-10-11","punk":3739,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.9043,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.2,"date":"2026-09-25","punk":7591,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.5538,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.98,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":5133,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4234,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-09-17","punk":1607,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.8385,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36.95,"date":"2026-08-21","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.1489,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.1206,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Big Shades","sales_12m":81}],"summary":["Estimate 28.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 25.8 to 32.0 ETH, 2σ range 23.1 to 35.6 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Handlebars -6%, Earring -2%, Mohawk -8%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8992","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}