{"punk":8998,"name":"CryptoPunk #8998","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8998","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8998.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Frown","Purple Hair","Clown Nose"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":35.7287,"usd":86574,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.5275,"high_eth":39.2451,"low_usd":78817,"high_usd":95094},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.613,"high_eth":43.1075,"low_usd":71755,"high_usd":104453},"sigma_log":0.0939,"multiple_of_floor":1.1757,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":35.7287,"usd":86574,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.5275,"high_eth":39.2451,"low_usd":78817,"high_usd":95094},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.613,"high_eth":43.1075,"low_usd":71755,"high_usd":104453},"sigma_log":0.0939,"multiple_of_floor":1.1757,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":32,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":32,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":69,"ask_usd":154268,"z":7.01,"z_text":"7.0σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2025-02-20T18:31:11.000Z","days_listed":623},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-6.4,"beta":-0.0656,"term":"attr:Clown Nose","label":"Clown Nose","sales_12m":25,"weighted_sales":6.1}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.1,"date":"2018-06-08","block":5753828,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":6,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":7.5,"date":"2020-10-07","block":11008942,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":175,"adjusted_eth":51.8011},{"eth":7.49,"date":"2020-12-28","block":11541333,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":71,"adjusted_eth":43.274},{"eth":69,"date":"2021-08-20","block":13059614,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":133,"adjusted_eth":40.3329},{"eth":80,"date":"2022-01-20","block":14039975,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":200,"adjusted_eth":38.0172},{"eth":81,"date":"2022-04-21","block":14629392,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":92,"adjusted_eth":43.2237},{"eth":57,"date":"2023-10-15","block":18356218,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":298,"adjusted_eth":38.5368},{"eth":0,"date":"2023-10-31","block":18473094,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":350,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":45,"date":"2024-12-08","block":21357876,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":93,"adjusted_eth":34.6215}],"comparables":[{"eth":51,"date":"2025-09-05","punk":4748,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.9631,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":43.6849,"date":"2025-03-24","punk":2672,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7604,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40,"date":"2025-03-23","punk":2672,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3976,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":40.4,"date":"2026-11-01","punk":7440,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":40.3734,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":60,"date":"2026-10-21","punk":6066,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":58.3115,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29,"date":"2026-10-20","punk":7711,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":28.1839,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30.4,"date":"2026-10-15","punk":5098,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8114,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":40,"date":"2026-10-12","punk":3758,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.6027,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.0982,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Frown","sales_12m":40},{"attribute":"Purple Hair","sales_12m":6}],"summary":["Estimate 35.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.5 to 39.2 ETH, 2σ range 29.6 to 43.1 ETH, confidence Low, as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 12:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Clown Nose -6%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8998","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}