{"punk":9016,"name":"CryptoPunk #9016","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9016","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9016.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Smile","Chinstrap","Stringy Hair","Horned Rim Glasses"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":40.7957,"usd":98851,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.2628,"high_eth":47.1968,"low_usd":85445,"high_usd":114362},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.4803,"high_eth":54.6022,"low_usd":73856,"high_usd":132306},"sigma_log":0.1457,"multiple_of_floor":1.3424,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":40.7957,"usd":98851,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.2628,"high_eth":47.1968,"low_usd":85445,"high_usd":114362},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.4803,"high_eth":54.6022,"low_usd":73856,"high_usd":132306},"sigma_log":0.1457,"multiple_of_floor":1.3424,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","block":26353297,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","block":26353297,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":38.86,"ask_usd":86882,"z":-0.33,"z_text":"0.3σ below the estimate","listed_since":"2026-05-20T11:58:35.000Z","days_listed":169},"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":19.8,"beta":0.1805,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":25.7},{"pct":17,"beta":0.1572,"term":"attr:Smile","label":"Smile","sales_12m":21,"weighted_sales":7},{"pct":-5.3,"beta":-0.054,"term":"attr:Chinstrap","label":"Chinstrap","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":19.3},{"pct":-9.4,"beta":-0.0983,"term":"attr:Stringy Hair","label":"Stringy Hair","sales_12m":96,"weighted_sales":25.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.5,"date":"2019-08-11","block":8328192,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":54,"adjusted_eth":60.78},{"eth":64,"date":"2021-12-16","block":13816096,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":15,"adjusted_eth":31.6662},{"eth":89.95,"date":"2022-03-12","block":14368694,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":15,"adjusted_eth":38.8293},{"eth":25.5,"date":"2024-07-25","block":20383829,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":224,"adjusted_eth":30.8866},{"eth":28.9,"date":"2024-10-23","block":21029687,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":238,"adjusted_eth":33.1423},{"eth":33.33,"date":"2024-11-14","block":21182586,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":285,"adjusted_eth":30.7032},{"eth":40.99,"date":"2024-11-27","block":21281097,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":49,"adjusted_eth":33.4952},{"eth":35,"date":"2025-02-25","block":21924309,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":28,"adjusted_eth":31.2012},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-05-11","block":25075172,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":176,"adjusted_eth":34.2898},{"eth":35.4,"date":"2026-05-19","block":25127455,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":258,"adjusted_eth":31.66}],"comparables":[{"eth":38,"date":"2024-11-25","punk":3890,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.64,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":35.5,"date":"2024-11-19","punk":3890,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9762,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":31.49,"date":"2026-10-12","punk":4064,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.39,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.55,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":4064,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3617,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.2,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":9984,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5861,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38.99,"date":"2026-06-16","punk":8918,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.2357,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.9,"date":"2026-05-23","punk":6068,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.808,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.33,"date":"2026-05-17","punk":6068,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4631,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.2308,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Horned Rim Glasses","sales_12m":50}],"summary":["Estimate 40.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 35.3 to 47.2 ETH, 2σ range 30.5 to 54.6 ETH, confidence Low, as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 04:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +20%, Smile +17%, Chinstrap -5%, Stringy Hair -9%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9016","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}