{"punk":9018,"name":"CryptoPunk #9018","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9018","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9018.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Handlebars","Earring","Peak Spike","Classic Shades"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":32.1737,"usd":77960,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.4322,"high_eth":35.1706,"low_usd":71317,"high_usd":85221},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.9243,"high_eth":38.4466,"low_usd":65240,"high_usd":93159},"sigma_log":0.0891,"multiple_of_floor":1.0587,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":32.1737,"usd":77960,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.4322,"high_eth":35.1706,"low_usd":71317,"high_usd":85221},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.9243,"high_eth":38.4466,"low_usd":65240,"high_usd":93159},"sigma_log":0.0891,"multiple_of_floor":1.0587,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","block":26355395,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":30,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","block":26355395,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":30,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":31.78,"ask_usd":71053,"z":-0.14,"z_text":"0.1σ below the estimate","listed_since":"2026-10-30T16:05:35.000Z","days_listed":6},"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-6.1,"beta":-0.0634,"term":"attr:Handlebars","label":"Handlebars","sales_12m":32,"weighted_sales":11.7},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6},{"pct":-5.8,"beta":-0.0603,"term":"attr:Peak Spike","label":"Peak Spike","sales_12m":41,"weighted_sales":14.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":22.22,"date":"2021-07-24","block":12891810,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":31,"adjusted_eth":32.1708},{"eth":33.33,"date":"2021-07-31","block":12934441,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":56,"adjusted_eth":33.7745},{"eth":86,"date":"2022-08-03","block":15268436,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":22,"adjusted_eth":33.7014},{"eth":55,"date":"2025-08-13","block":23129938,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":222,"adjusted_eth":32.1433},{"eth":31,"date":"2025-12-11","block":23990521,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":820,"adjusted_eth":31.4554},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-06-04","block":25241936,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":283,"adjusted_eth":30.5973},{"eth":34.44,"date":"2026-07-04","block":25460273,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":127,"adjusted_eth":32.2636},{"eth":36.95,"date":"2026-08-21","block":25804299,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":896,"adjusted_eth":34.6043},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-10-29","block":26300943,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":146,"adjusted_eth":31.4444}],"comparables":[{"eth":35.5,"date":"2026-04-22","punk":2830,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.3561,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":48.99,"date":"2025-08-25","punk":2830,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8753,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":47.39,"date":"2024-12-03","punk":2830,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.5538,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":29.5,"date":"2026-10-25","punk":9404,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.2116,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.35,"date":"2026-10-23","punk":8427,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.7725,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-10-14","punk":3378,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0508,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.4999,"date":"2026-09-25","punk":9142,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1206,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":9142,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2186,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0066,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Classic Shades","sales_12m":64}],"summary":["Estimate 32.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.4 to 35.2 ETH, 2σ range 26.9 to 38.4 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 11:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Handlebars -6%, Earring -2%, Peak Spike -6%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[{"sale_day":"2026-10-29","estimate_date":"2026-10-28","price_eth":30,"est_eth":32.1504,"low1":29.4088,"high1":35.1476,"low2":26.901,"high2":38.4241,"z":-0.78,"confidence":"Medium","source":"native-buy","prospective":true,"model_version":"est-v2-202610","z_text":"0.8σ below the estimate"}],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9018","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}