{"punk":9103,"name":"CryptoPunk #9103","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9103","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9103.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Mustache","Mohawk"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":33.2547,"usd":75609,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.6639,"high_eth":36.0645,"low_usd":69718,"high_usd":81997},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.275,"high_eth":39.1116,"low_usd":64287,"high_usd":88925},"sigma_log":0.0811,"multiple_of_floor":1.0943,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":32.817,"usd":74614,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.2603,"high_eth":35.5898,"low_usd":68801,"high_usd":80918},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.9028,"high_eth":38.5968,"low_usd":63441,"high_usd":87755},"sigma_log":0.0811,"multiple_of_floor":1.0943,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":53,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":53,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10,"beta":0.0957,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":89.3},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":102.4},{"pct":-7.6,"beta":-0.0788,"term":"attr:Mohawk","label":"Mohawk","sales_12m":75,"weighted_sales":16}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":20.25,"date":"2021-04-10","block":12212524,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"relay-same-block","log_index":46,"adjusted_eth":30.8429},{"eth":21.5,"date":"2021-04-10","block":12212524,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":48,"adjusted_eth":32.7468},{"eth":37.9,"date":"2021-08-01","block":12942162,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":30,"adjusted_eth":34.706},{"eth":99.9,"date":"2021-09-16","block":13236114,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":148,"adjusted_eth":29.3726},{"eth":80.2,"date":"2022-01-26","block":14078463,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":23,"adjusted_eth":30.2541},{"eth":68.5,"date":"2022-02-13","block":14194500,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":30,"adjusted_eth":28.2613},{"eth":37,"date":"2024-05-02","block":19783132,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":305,"adjusted_eth":29.2856},{"eth":30,"date":"2024-10-03","block":20888177,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":122,"adjusted_eth":33.3346},{"eth":40.5,"date":"2024-12-16","block":21415292,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":507,"adjusted_eth":30.602}],"comparables":[{"eth":36.49,"date":"2026-10-02","punk":2529,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.1717,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.501,"date":"2026-09-27","punk":2529,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.9402,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35.8,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":2529,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.1064,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.001,"date":"2026-07-13","punk":2529,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.6508,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.99,"date":"2025-11-14","punk":5198,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.4288,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2025-11-14","punk":5198,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":27.5982,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":57.69,"date":"2025-07-28","punk":9439,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0512,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":51,"date":"2025-05-16","punk":9439,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.8287,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0268,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Mustache","sales_12m":51}],"summary":["Estimate 33.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 30.7 to 36.1 ETH, 2σ range 28.3 to 39.1 ETH, confidence High, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Mohawk -8%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9103","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}