{"punk":9123,"name":"CryptoPunk #9123","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9123","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9123.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Shadow Beard","Frumpy Hair","Eye Patch"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":31.4119,"usd":76114,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.9549,"high_eth":34.0773,"low_usd":70160,"high_usd":82572},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.6902,"high_eth":36.9689,"low_usd":64673,"high_usd":89579},"sigma_log":0.0814,"multiple_of_floor":1.0336,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":31.4119,"usd":76114,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.9549,"high_eth":34.0773,"low_usd":70160,"high_usd":82572},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.6902,"high_eth":36.9689,"low_usd":64673,"high_usd":89579},"sigma_log":0.0814,"multiple_of_floor":1.0336,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","block":26353598,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":8,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","block":26353598,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":8,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.076,"term":"attr:Frumpy Hair","label":"Frumpy Hair","sales_12m":59,"weighted_sales":19.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.25,"date":"2019-08-09","block":8318113,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":49,"adjusted_eth":25.325},{"eth":110,"date":"2021-10-03","block":13348197,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":38,"adjusted_eth":27.43},{"eth":83,"date":"2021-11-08","block":13576649,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":533,"adjusted_eth":32.4337},{"eth":83,"date":"2022-07-16","block":15156176,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":62,"adjusted_eth":30.2442},{"eth":65.99,"date":"2023-03-06","block":16771029,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":235,"adjusted_eth":29.9364}],"comparables":[{"eth":35,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":2004,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.7983,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.69,"date":"2026-08-08","punk":9950,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.459,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":95,"date":"2026-07-27","punk":9774,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":89.134,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.99,"date":"2026-05-24","punk":8155,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.5723,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.8,"date":"2026-05-10","punk":8492,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.165,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.9,"date":"2026-05-01","punk":8492,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3228,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.5,"date":"2026-04-28","punk":8492,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":30.016,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-02-05","punk":3837,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.5736,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0306,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Shadow Beard","sales_12m":55},{"attribute":"Eye Patch","sales_12m":74}],"summary":["Estimate 31.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.0 to 34.1 ETH, 2σ range 26.7 to 37.0 ETH, confidence High, as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 05:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Frumpy Hair -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9123","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}