{"punk":9168,"name":"CryptoPunk #9168","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9168","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9168.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Smile","Muttonchops","Knitted Cap","VR"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":44.0814,"usd":106813,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":36.8937,"high_eth":52.6695,"low_usd":89396,"high_usd":127623},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.8779,"high_eth":62.9308,"low_usd":74820,"high_usd":152486},"sigma_log":0.178,"multiple_of_floor":1.4505,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":44.0814,"usd":106813,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":36.8937,"high_eth":52.6695,"low_usd":89396,"high_usd":127623},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.8779,"high_eth":62.9308,"low_usd":74820,"high_usd":152486},"sigma_log":0.178,"multiple_of_floor":1.4505,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":40,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":40,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":42.99,"ask_usd":96116,"z":-0.14,"z_text":"0.1σ below the estimate","listed_since":"2026-06-18T02:17:23.000Z","days_listed":141},"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":17,"beta":0.1572,"term":"attr:Smile","label":"Smile","sales_12m":21,"weighted_sales":7},{"pct":-9.3,"beta":-0.0973,"term":"attr:Muttonchops","label":"Muttonchops","sales_12m":48,"weighted_sales":15.7},{"pct":22.5,"beta":0.2029,"term":"attr:VR","label":"VR","sales_12m":24,"weighted_sales":3.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":35.5,"date":"2021-03-02","block":11960704,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":24,"adjusted_eth":48.1627},{"eth":40,"date":"2021-05-27","block":12518233,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":217,"adjusted_eth":81.04},{"eth":87,"date":"2021-08-05","block":12964779,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":134,"adjusted_eth":59.4944}],"comparables":[{"eth":161.5,"date":"2026-09-04","punk":1839,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":159.6612,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.99,"date":"2026-07-04","punk":3359,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9052,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46.4559,"date":"2025-10-01","punk":9516,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.854,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":45.95,"date":"2025-09-29","punk":9516,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9083,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":53.5,"date":"2025-08-08","punk":6117,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3333,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":75,"date":"2025-07-30","punk":5233,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":42.3338,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48.98,"date":"2025-07-21","punk":9516,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0752,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":47.6849,"date":"2025-07-16","punk":5229,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.7481,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.3083,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Knitted Cap","sales_12m":49}],"summary":["Estimate 44.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 36.9 to 52.7 ETH, 2σ range 30.9 to 62.9 ETH, confidence Low, as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 10:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Smile +17%, Muttonchops -9%, VR +23%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9168","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}