{"punk":9197,"name":"CryptoPunk #9197","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9197","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9197.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Front Beard Dark","Shaved Head"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":30.9272,"usd":74939,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.4567,"high_eth":33.6123,"low_usd":68953,"high_usd":81445},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.1835,"high_eth":36.5305,"low_usd":63445,"high_usd":88516},"sigma_log":0.0833,"multiple_of_floor":1.0177,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.9272,"usd":74939,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.4567,"high_eth":33.6123,"low_usd":68953,"high_usd":81445},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.1835,"high_eth":36.5305,"low_usd":63445,"high_usd":88516},"sigma_log":0.0833,"multiple_of_floor":1.0177,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":26,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":26,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":75,"ask_usd":167683,"z":10.63,"z_text":"10.6σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2025-07-28T07:56:59.000Z","days_listed":466},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0756,"term":"attr:Front Beard Dark","label":"Front Beard Dark","sales_12m":35,"weighted_sales":13.3},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0758,"term":"attr:Shaved Head","label":"Shaved Head","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":12.5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.9248,"date":"2020-05-22","block":10114625,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":183,"adjusted_eth":28.1053},{"eth":1.49,"date":"2020-09-14","block":10862277,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":247,"adjusted_eth":23.3408},{"eth":20,"date":"2021-04-28","block":12326014,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":28.2829},{"eth":21.45,"date":"2021-07-26","block":12902966,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":220,"adjusted_eth":29.6437},{"eth":120.5,"date":"2021-08-31","block":13133216,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":186,"adjusted_eth":31.8462},{"eth":121,"date":"2021-10-01","block":13330581,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":3,"adjusted_eth":29.5357},{"eth":123,"date":"2021-10-01","block":13331755,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":38,"adjusted_eth":30.0239},{"eth":72,"date":"2022-01-01","block":13917493,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":114,"adjusted_eth":32.8048},{"eth":66.95,"date":"2022-12-30","block":16298868,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":63,"adjusted_eth":31.0912},{"eth":68.95,"date":"2023-01-06","block":16346834,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":788,"adjusted_eth":31.4199},{"eth":71,"date":"2023-03-18","block":16855500,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":271,"adjusted_eth":28.9739},{"eth":73.5,"date":"2023-03-18","block":16857932,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":164,"adjusted_eth":29.9942},{"eth":0,"date":"2023-06-06","block":17423325,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":257,"adjusted_eth":null}],"comparables":[{"eth":28.95,"date":"2026-04-08","punk":6188,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.143,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.29,"date":"2026-04-02","punk":6188,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2744,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":45.69,"date":"2025-09-14","punk":1863,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":28.7062,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":3391,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9803,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":37,"date":"2026-11-01","punk":6406,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.9757,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30.499,"date":"2026-10-27","punk":9176,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.399,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30.4,"date":"2026-10-15","punk":5098,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8114,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.31,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":5098,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0538,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.0461,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 30.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.5 to 33.6 ETH, 2σ range 26.2 to 36.5 ETH, confidence High, as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 12:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Front Beard Dark -7%, Shaved Head -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9197","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}