{"punk":920,"name":"CryptoPunk #920","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/920","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/920.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Smile","Chinstrap","Earring","Vampire Hair","VR"],"attribute_count":5,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":45.2844,"usd":102960,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":37.452,"high_eth":54.7551,"low_usd":85152,"high_usd":124493},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.9741,"high_eth":66.2064,"low_usd":70424,"high_usd":150529},"sigma_log":0.1899,"multiple_of_floor":1.4901,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":44.6884,"usd":101605,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":36.959,"high_eth":54.0344,"low_usd":84031,"high_usd":122854},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.5664,"high_eth":65.335,"low_usd":69497,"high_usd":148547},"sigma_log":0.1899,"multiple_of_floor":1.4901,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":46,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":46,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":67},{"pct":17,"beta":0.1572,"term":"attr:Smile","label":"Smile","sales_12m":21,"weighted_sales":7},{"pct":-5.3,"beta":-0.054,"term":"attr:Chinstrap","label":"Chinstrap","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":19.4},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":306,"weighted_sales":71.1},{"pct":-10.5,"beta":-0.1109,"term":"attr:Vampire Hair","label":"Vampire Hair","sales_12m":18,"weighted_sales":6.6},{"pct":22.5,"beta":0.2032,"term":"attr:VR","label":"VR","sales_12m":24,"weighted_sales":3.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":50,"date":"2021-02-21","block":11902621,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":65,"adjusted_eth":74.975},{"eth":99.99,"date":"2021-02-27","block":11937865,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":198,"adjusted_eth":136.3045},{"eth":99,"date":"2021-07-13","block":12820436,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":58,"adjusted_eth":156.2637},{"eth":162.5,"date":"2021-08-05","block":12966092,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":139,"adjusted_eth":109.6619},{"eth":177,"date":"2021-12-22","block":13855930,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":32,"adjusted_eth":98.611}],"comparables":[{"eth":76,"date":"2025-03-09","punk":638,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":59.278,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":33.2,"date":"2026-09-25","punk":7591,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.5538,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.745,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":2505,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.7107,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":161.5,"date":"2026-09-04","punk":1839,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":157.5597,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38,"date":"2026-08-23","punk":1717,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.6354,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.25,"date":"2026-08-20","punk":2505,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8419,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37,"date":"2026-08-13","punk":6562,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.982,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.19,"date":"2026-08-12","punk":6562,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3798,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.3355,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 45.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 37.5 to 54.8 ETH, 2σ range 31.0 to 66.2 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Smile +17%, Chinstrap -5%, Earring -2%, Vampire Hair -11%, VR +23%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/920","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}