{"punk":921,"name":"CryptoPunk #921","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/921","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/921.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Earring","Red Mohawk","Cigarette","Regular Shades"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":31.1954,"usd":75589,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.5365,"high_eth":32.9475,"low_usd":71569,"high_usd":79834},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.9659,"high_eth":34.798,"low_usd":67764,"high_usd":84318},"sigma_log":0.0546,"multiple_of_floor":1.0265,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":31.1954,"usd":75589,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.5365,"high_eth":32.9475,"low_usd":71569,"high_usd":79834},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.9659,"high_eth":34.798,"low_usd":67764,"high_usd":84318},"sigma_log":0.0546,"multiple_of_floor":1.0265,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","block":26353598,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":7,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","block":26353598,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":7,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":{"ask_eth":420.69,"ask_usd":940568,"z":47.65,"z_text":"47.6σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2021-02-22T06:59:20.000Z","days_listed":2082},"argument":{"cell":"Female 4+","terms":[{"pct":4,"beta":0.0392,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":42.1},{"pct":-2.2,"beta":-0.0225,"term":"attr:Cigarette","label":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110,"weighted_sales":14.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 4+","seen":{"n":135,"cover1":0.6,"cover2":0.815,"bias_pct":-0.9,"within10":0.763,"within25":0.933,"MdALE_pct":4.5},"thin":false,"sigma":0.054,"selection":{"n":177,"cover1":0.712,"cover2":0.921,"bias_pct":-0.5,"within10":0.819,"within25":0.966,"MdALE_pct":3.4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":29.99,"date":"2021-02-22","block":11905329,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":100,"adjusted_eth":38.7828}],"comparables":[{"eth":28.88,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":874,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8017,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":32.42,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":4065,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3806,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.05,"date":"2026-08-29","punk":5677,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5521,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.485,"date":"2026-08-24","punk":6570,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3058,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.2,"date":"2026-08-20","punk":5067,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.1931,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.49,"date":"2026-05-31","punk":3646,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.1106,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-05-21","punk":5677,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9543,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.99,"date":"2026-04-04","punk":4214,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.733,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0167,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Earring","sales_12m":303},{"attribute":"Red Mohawk","sales_12m":10},{"attribute":"Regular Shades","sales_12m":47}],"summary":["Estimate 31.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.5 to 32.9 ETH, 2σ range 28.0 to 34.8 ETH, confidence Low, as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 05:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +4%, Cigarette -2%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 4+ sales landed within ±3.4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/921","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}