{"punk":9216,"name":"CryptoPunk #9216","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9216","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9216.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Gold Chain","Vampire Hair","Horned Rim Glasses"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":33.3827,"usd":80889,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.7723,"high_eth":36.2145,"low_usd":74564,"high_usd":87751},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.3661,"high_eth":39.2865,"low_usd":68733,"high_usd":95194},"sigma_log":0.0814,"multiple_of_floor":1.0985,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":33.3827,"usd":80889,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.7723,"high_eth":36.2145,"low_usd":74564,"high_usd":87751},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.3661,"high_eth":39.2865,"low_usd":68733,"high_usd":95194},"sigma_log":0.0814,"multiple_of_floor":1.0985,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":44,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":44,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-10.5,"beta":-0.1109,"term":"attr:Vampire Hair","label":"Vampire Hair","sales_12m":18,"weighted_sales":6.5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":1.5,"date":"2020-04-25","block":9940582,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":80,"adjusted_eth":89.3824},{"eth":9.99,"date":"2021-02-09","block":11822776,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":29,"adjusted_eth":51.457},{"eth":30,"date":"2021-03-16","block":12047522,"source":"native-bid","excluded":"round-trip-30d","log_index":65,"adjusted_eth":41.5353},{"eth":29.5,"date":"2021-03-20","block":12076548,"source":"native-bid","excluded":"round-trip-30d","log_index":34,"adjusted_eth":42.6907},{"eth":29.89,"date":"2021-03-29","block":12136011,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":251,"adjusted_eth":51.175},{"eth":31.26,"date":"2026-10-30","block":26307901,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":246,"adjusted_eth":33.3401}],"comparables":[{"eth":60,"date":"2025-08-05","punk":4234,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":35.4058,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.25,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":4282,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2301,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.75,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":4282,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7296,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":60,"date":"2026-10-21","punk":6066,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":58.3115,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":43.5,"date":"2026-10-16","punk":6687,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":42.644,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":35.9,"date":"2026-10-09","punk":8159,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.646,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":38.33,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":8659,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.2603,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":8246,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.987,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.0303,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Gold Chain","sales_12m":24},{"attribute":"Horned Rim Glasses","sales_12m":50}],"summary":["Estimate 33.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 30.8 to 36.2 ETH, 2σ range 28.4 to 39.3 ETH, confidence Low, as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 07:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Vampire Hair -11%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[{"sale_day":"2026-10-30","estimate_date":"2026-10-29","price_eth":31.26,"est_eth":35.845,"low1":32.1333,"high1":39.9855,"low2":28.8059,"high2":44.6042,"z":-1.25,"confidence":"Low","source":"native-buy","prospective":true,"model_version":"est-v2-202610","z_text":"1.3σ below the estimate"}],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9216","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}