{"punk":9386,"name":"CryptoPunk #9386","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9386","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9386.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Muttonchops","Mohawk Dark","Small Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":28.3997,"usd":64570,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":25.6095,"high_eth":31.4938,"low_usd":58226,"high_usd":71605},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":23.0935,"high_eth":34.9251,"low_usd":52506,"high_usd":79407},"sigma_log":0.1034,"multiple_of_floor":0.9345,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":28.0259,"usd":63720,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":25.2724,"high_eth":31.0793,"low_usd":57460,"high_usd":70663},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":22.7895,"high_eth":34.4654,"low_usd":51815,"high_usd":78361},"sigma_log":0.1034,"multiple_of_floor":0.9345,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":58,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":58,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-9.3,"beta":-0.0973,"term":"attr:Muttonchops","label":"Muttonchops","sales_12m":48,"weighted_sales":15.8},{"pct":-7.6,"beta":-0.0795,"term":"attr:Mohawk Dark","label":"Mohawk Dark","sales_12m":53,"weighted_sales":13.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":16,"date":"2021-05-11","block":12415079,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":276,"adjusted_eth":29.99},{"eth":17.45,"date":"2021-05-12","block":12416916,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":179,"adjusted_eth":37.4607},{"eth":18.81,"date":"2021-06-30","block":12737460,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":328,"adjusted_eth":32.4389},{"eth":21,"date":"2021-07-28","block":12915058,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":34,"adjusted_eth":28.7575},{"eth":21.8,"date":"2021-07-29","block":12921645,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":129,"adjusted_eth":28.7503},{"eth":28.4,"date":"2021-07-31","block":12934567,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":112,"adjusted_eth":28.4},{"eth":50,"date":"2021-08-06","block":12969492,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":128,"adjusted_eth":30.602},{"eth":53.97,"date":"2021-08-06","block":12969732,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"twin-of-nominal-24h","log_index":145,"adjusted_eth":33.0318},{"eth":0,"date":"2021-08-06","block":12969752,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":101,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":54.6,"date":"2023-12-21","block":18831378,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":123,"adjusted_eth":28.7828}],"comparables":[{"eth":32.45,"date":"2026-08-25","punk":3862,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9992,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.8,"date":"2026-08-23","punk":3862,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.8834,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.5,"date":"2026-06-30","punk":8062,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5491,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.94,"date":"2026-06-25","punk":5842,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3233,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.5,"date":"2026-06-03","punk":5842,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.6786,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.95,"date":"2026-04-17","punk":6508,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2886,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":26.69,"date":"2026-04-12","punk":6508,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.8548,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.45,"date":"2026-04-11","punk":6508,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.6592,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.1311,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Small Shades","sales_12m":46}],"summary":["Estimate 28.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 25.6 to 31.5 ETH, 2σ range 23.1 to 34.9 ETH, confidence High, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Muttonchops -9%, Mohawk Dark -8%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9386","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}