{"punk":9404,"name":"CryptoPunk #9404","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9404","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9404.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Muttonchops","Earring","Peak Spike","Regular Shades"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":28.2617,"usd":68480,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":25.2653,"high_eth":31.6134,"low_usd":61220,"high_usd":76602},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":22.5866,"high_eth":35.3626,"low_usd":54729,"high_usd":85686},"sigma_log":0.1121,"multiple_of_floor":0.93,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":28.2617,"usd":68480,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":25.2653,"high_eth":31.6134,"low_usd":61220,"high_usd":76602},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":22.5866,"high_eth":35.3626,"low_usd":54729,"high_usd":85686},"sigma_log":0.1121,"multiple_of_floor":0.93,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","block":26353598,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","block":26353598,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":37.86,"ask_usd":84646,"z":2.61,"z_text":"2.6σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2026-10-25T07:43:47.000Z","days_listed":11},"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-9.3,"beta":-0.0973,"term":"attr:Muttonchops","label":"Muttonchops","sales_12m":48,"weighted_sales":15.7},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6},{"pct":-5.8,"beta":-0.0603,"term":"attr:Peak Spike","label":"Peak Spike","sales_12m":41,"weighted_sales":14.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.15,"date":"2017-12-10","block":4706032,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":20,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":0.3,"date":"2019-01-26","block":7130524,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":60,"adjusted_eth":30.4916},{"eth":3.49,"date":"2020-09-26","block":10940830,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":216,"adjusted_eth":35.3537},{"eth":29.7,"date":"2026-05-04","block":25022685,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":395,"adjusted_eth":29.1626},{"eth":29.5,"date":"2026-10-25","block":26267498,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":31,"adjusted_eth":29.2116}],"comparables":[{"eth":53.5,"date":"2025-08-08","punk":6117,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3333,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":47,"date":"2025-07-20","punk":9765,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2292,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":36,"date":"2024-11-15","punk":6117,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.7981,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-10-29","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.4444,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.35,"date":"2026-10-23","punk":8427,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.7725,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":2235,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.4737,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39.88,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":4714,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.9737,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.5,"date":"2026-09-04","punk":8375,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.13,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.1362,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Regular Shades","sales_12m":47}],"summary":["Estimate 28.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 25.3 to 31.6 ETH, 2σ range 22.6 to 35.4 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 05:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Muttonchops -9%, Earring -2%, Peak Spike -6%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[{"sale_day":"2026-10-25","estimate_date":"2026-10-24","price_eth":29.5,"est_eth":28.6267,"low1":25.6096,"high1":31.9993,"low2":22.9105,"high2":35.7692,"z":0.27,"confidence":"Medium","source":"native-bid","prospective":true,"model_version":"est-v2-202610","z_text":"0.3σ above the estimate"}],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9404","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}