{"punk":9407,"name":"CryptoPunk #9407","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9407","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9407.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Knitted Cap","Cigarette","Clown Eyes Blue"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":34.3938,"usd":78199,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.5748,"high_eth":37.4644,"low_usd":71789,"high_usd":85180},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.9869,"high_eth":40.8092,"low_usd":65905,"high_usd":92785},"sigma_log":0.0855,"multiple_of_floor":1.1317,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":33.9411,"usd":77169,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.1592,"high_eth":36.9713,"low_usd":70844,"high_usd":84059},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.6054,"high_eth":40.2721,"low_usd":65038,"high_usd":91564},"sigma_log":0.0855,"multiple_of_floor":1.1317,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":44,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":44,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10,"beta":0.0957,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":89.3},{"pct":-7.8,"beta":-0.081,"term":"attr:Clown Eyes Blue","label":"Clown Eyes Blue","sales_12m":66,"weighted_sales":6.4}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.35,"date":"2019-03-27","block":7452379,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":41,"adjusted_eth":35.1054},{"eth":0.4,"date":"2019-03-28","block":7459207,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":86,"adjusted_eth":35.2824},{"eth":0.45,"date":"2019-05-06","block":7704743,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":44,"adjusted_eth":30.6716},{"eth":9.6,"date":"2021-02-16","block":11868044,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":212,"adjusted_eth":34.2743}],"comparables":[{"eth":161.5,"date":"2026-09-04","punk":1839,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":157.5597,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.22,"date":"2026-07-03","punk":5450,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7866,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.67,"date":"2026-04-17","punk":5450,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9751,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.25,"date":"2026-04-08","punk":5450,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.99,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":75,"date":"2025-07-30","punk":5233,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.7766,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48.69,"date":"2025-07-20","punk":3350,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.904,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":45,"date":"2025-06-23","punk":3095,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.1658,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":47.49,"date":"2025-05-19","punk":1235,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3091,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0604,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Knitted Cap","sales_12m":49},{"attribute":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110}],"summary":["Estimate 34.4 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.6 to 37.5 ETH, 2σ range 29.0 to 40.8 ETH, confidence High, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Clown Eyes Blue -8%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9407","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}