{"punk":9438,"name":"CryptoPunk #9438","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9438","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9438.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Purple Lipstick","Earring","Blonde Short","3D Glasses"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":43.4661,"usd":105322,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":36.2191,"high_eth":52.1632,"low_usd":87762,"high_usd":126396},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.1803,"high_eth":62.6006,"low_usd":73129,"high_usd":151686},"sigma_log":0.1824,"multiple_of_floor":1.4303,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":43.4661,"usd":105322,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":36.2191,"high_eth":52.1632,"low_usd":87762,"high_usd":126396},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.1803,"high_eth":62.6006,"low_usd":73129,"high_usd":151686},"sigma_log":0.1824,"multiple_of_floor":1.4303,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":41,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":41,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":405,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 4+","terms":[{"pct":-2.9,"beta":-0.0292,"term":"attr:Blonde Short","label":"Blonde Short","sales_12m":22,"weighted_sales":9.4},{"pct":45.9,"beta":0.3777,"term":"attr:3D Glasses","label":"3D Glasses","sales_12m":11,"weighted_sales":0.9}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 4+","seen":{"n":135,"cover1":0.6,"cover2":0.815,"bias_pct":-0.9,"within10":0.763,"within25":0.933,"MdALE_pct":4.5},"thin":false,"sigma":0.054,"selection":{"n":177,"cover1":0.712,"cover2":0.921,"bias_pct":-0.5,"within10":0.819,"within25":0.966,"MdALE_pct":3.4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":36.5,"date":"2021-03-11","block":12015675,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":151,"adjusted_eth":52.8207},{"eth":38.01,"date":"2021-03-13","block":12027439,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":97,"adjusted_eth":52.5773},{"eth":38,"date":"2021-03-13","block":12033272,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":73,"adjusted_eth":52.5635},{"eth":42,"date":"2021-03-21","block":12084193,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":131,"adjusted_eth":60.809},{"eth":55,"date":"2021-04-14","block":12240530,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":270,"adjusted_eth":82.5407},{"eth":49,"date":"2021-07-31","block":12935311,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":134,"adjusted_eth":49.6536},{"eth":97.99,"date":"2021-08-23","block":13081466,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":119,"adjusted_eth":43.9999},{"eth":58.49,"date":"2024-12-03","block":21322334,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":116,"adjusted_eth":40.1788},{"eth":66.69,"date":"2025-07-24","block":22985838,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":161,"adjusted_eth":40.5423}],"comparables":[{"eth":30.48,"date":"2026-06-25","punk":8999,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.4153,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":43.9,"date":"2024-12-01","punk":6357,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0333,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":88,"date":"2026-10-22","punk":4405,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":85.5236,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":1452,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2838,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35.6,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":8674,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.3606,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.485,"date":"2026-08-24","punk":6570,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3058,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.25,"date":"2026-07-03","punk":7056,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2752,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":55,"date":"2026-07-02","punk":5361,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":52.2818,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.3484,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Purple Lipstick","sales_12m":66},{"attribute":"Earring","sales_12m":303}],"summary":["Estimate 43.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 36.2 to 52.2 ETH, 2σ range 30.2 to 62.6 ETH, confidence Low, as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 12:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Blonde Short -3%, 3D Glasses +46%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 4+ sales landed within ±3.4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9438","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}