{"punk":9453,"name":"CryptoPunk #9453","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9453","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9453.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Mustache","Cap","Cigarette"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":40.5965,"usd":98369,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.3484,"high_eth":46.6238,"low_usd":85652,"high_usd":112973},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.7787,"high_eth":53.546,"low_usd":74579,"high_usd":129746},"sigma_log":0.1384,"multiple_of_floor":1.3359,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":40.5965,"usd":98369,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.3484,"high_eth":46.6238,"low_usd":85652,"high_usd":112973},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.7787,"high_eth":53.546,"low_usd":74579,"high_usd":129746},"sigma_log":0.1384,"multiple_of_floor":1.3359,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":33,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":33,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":19.8,"beta":0.1805,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":25.7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.295,"date":"2019-01-18","block":7086129,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":68,"adjusted_eth":30.914},{"eth":0.37,"date":"2019-12-30","block":9184059,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":109,"adjusted_eth":25.5552},{"eth":0.44,"date":"2019-12-31","block":9191953,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":36,"adjusted_eth":31.8371},{"eth":75.8,"date":"2022-01-02","block":13923217,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":12,"adjusted_eth":33.8809}],"comparables":[{"eth":161.5,"date":"2026-09-04","punk":1839,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":159.6612,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.9,"date":"2026-05-23","punk":6068,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.808,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.33,"date":"2026-05-17","punk":6068,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4631,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.39,"date":"2026-04-24","punk":2650,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.1275,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-04-22","punk":6068,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.5686,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36.89,"date":"2026-03-13","punk":4790,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.3364,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.75,"date":"2026-03-10","punk":2650,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3895,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.5,"date":"2026-03-06","punk":2650,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":31.527,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.2259,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Mustache","sales_12m":51},{"attribute":"Cap","sales_12m":38},{"attribute":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110}],"summary":["Estimate 40.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 35.3 to 46.6 ETH, 2σ range 30.8 to 53.5 ETH, confidence High, as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 12:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +20%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9453","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}