{"punk":9472,"name":"CryptoPunk #9472","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9472","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9472.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Shadow Beard","Bandana","Small Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":35.9897,"usd":81827,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.6985,"high_eth":39.6123,"low_usd":74344,"high_usd":90064},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.7082,"high_eth":43.5995,"low_usd":67545,"high_usd":99129},"sigma_log":0.0959,"multiple_of_floor":1.1843,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":35.516,"usd":80750,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.2681,"high_eth":39.0909,"low_usd":73366,"high_usd":88878},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.3172,"high_eth":43.0256,"low_usd":66656,"high_usd":97824},"sigma_log":0.0959,"multiple_of_floor":1.1843,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":46,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T22:04:35.000Z","block":26351503,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":46,"stale":false,"label":"as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10,"beta":0.0957,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":89.3},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0357,"term":"attr:Bandana","label":"Bandana","sales_12m":63,"weighted_sales":14.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":20,"date":"2021-03-27","block":12122624,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":43,"adjusted_eth":33.3222},{"eth":69,"date":"2022-04-16","block":14593750,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":73,"adjusted_eth":32.4903},{"eth":50.5,"date":"2024-12-01","block":21307454,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":157,"adjusted_eth":35.229},{"eth":50.69,"date":"2025-10-01","block":23486342,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":332,"adjusted_eth":32.1462}],"comparables":[{"eth":88.88,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":4746,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":82.1928,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.49,"date":"2026-09-02","punk":4255,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.8947,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":45.5,"date":"2026-06-30","punk":2276,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":42.682,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.79,"date":"2026-06-28","punk":4255,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2576,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.8,"date":"2026-05-10","punk":8492,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7416,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.9,"date":"2026-05-01","punk":8492,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9105,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.5,"date":"2026-04-28","punk":8492,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.621,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38,"date":"2026-04-01","punk":6749,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":40.3405,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.1058,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Shadow Beard","sales_12m":57},{"attribute":"Small Shades","sales_12m":46}],"summary":["Estimate 36.0 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.7 to 39.6 ETH, 2σ range 29.7 to 43.6 ETH, confidence High, as of 22:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 22:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Bandana -4%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9472","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}