{"punk":9481,"name":"CryptoPunk #9481","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9481","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9481.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Mole","Wild White Hair","Green Eye Shadow"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-06","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-06 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-07T00:20:34.586Z","fingerprint_sha256":"76e58439a099cc8cd66c5865a3915bee905a819a57c55e8ad375b9f5abdc46a1"},"estimate":{"eth":41.3134,"usd":92367,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.2776,"high_eth":48.3818,"low_usd":78873,"high_usd":108171},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.1237,"high_eth":56.6596,"low_usd":67350,"high_usd":126678},"sigma_log":0.1579,"multiple_of_floor":1.3594,"n1_eth":30.6589,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-07T02:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":41.3134,"usd":92367,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.2776,"high_eth":48.3818,"low_usd":78873,"high_usd":108171},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.1237,"high_eth":56.6596,"low_usd":67350,"high_usd":126678},"sigma_log":0.1579,"multiple_of_floor":1.3594,"n1_eth":30.6589,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"76e58439a099cc8cd66c5865a3915bee905a819a57c55e8ad375b9f5abdc46a1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-07T02:04:35.000Z","block":26359875,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":19,"stale":false,"label":"as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2235.7745744284666,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-07","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-07T02:04:35.000Z","block":26359875,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":19,"stale":false,"label":"as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-07","eth":30.4,"public_asks":405,"punk":6263}},"listing":{"ask_eth":79.69,"ask_usd":178209,"z":4.16,"z_text":"4.2σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2022-06-28T05:06:26.000Z","days_listed":1592},"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":34.8,"beta":0.2983,"term":"attr:Wild White Hair","label":"Wild White Hair","sales_12m":13,"weighted_sales":4}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":34.99,"date":"2021-04-12","block":12223670,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":66,"adjusted_eth":51.8959},{"eth":69.69,"date":"2021-08-04","block":12956440,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":61.4056}],"comparables":[{"eth":41.53,"date":"2026-06-14","punk":4153,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.5962,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38.5,"date":"2026-05-20","punk":4153,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.4325,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.49,"date":"2026-04-19","punk":4846,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.2042,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":24.511,"date":"2026-04-18","punk":4846,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.8151,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46,"date":"2026-02-05","punk":5734,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":46.7538,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":43.5,"date":"2025-10-27","punk":4101,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.8965,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42,"date":"2025-07-20","punk":4348,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.0133,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36.9,"date":"2025-07-04","punk":4348,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.761,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.2983,"type_multiple":{"sales":439,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0088,"median_multiple":1.0088},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Mole","sales_12m":89},{"attribute":"Green Eye Shadow","sales_12m":32}],"summary":["Estimate 41.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 35.3 to 48.4 ETH, 2σ range 30.1 to 56.7 ETH, confidence Low, as of 02:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-06).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 02:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-06.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (439 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Wild White Hair +35%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9481","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}