{"punk":9494,"name":"CryptoPunk #9494","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9494","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9494.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Shadow Beard","Shaved Head","VR"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":43.3245,"usd":104979,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":36.6966,"high_eth":51.1494,"low_usd":88919,"high_usd":123939},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.0826,"high_eth":60.3877,"low_usd":75316,"high_usd":146324},"sigma_log":0.166,"multiple_of_floor":1.4256,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T09:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":43.3245,"usd":104979,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":36.6966,"high_eth":51.1494,"low_usd":88919,"high_usd":123939},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.0826,"high_eth":60.3877,"low_usd":75316,"high_usd":146324},"sigma_log":0.166,"multiple_of_floor":1.4256,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T09:04:35.000Z","block":26354795,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":45,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T09:04:35.000Z","block":26354795,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":45,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":65,"ask_usd":145325,"z":2.44,"z_text":"2.4σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2025-07-22T19:57:11.000Z","days_listed":471},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0758,"term":"attr:Shaved Head","label":"Shaved Head","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":12.5},{"pct":22.5,"beta":0.2029,"term":"attr:VR","label":"VR","sales_12m":24,"weighted_sales":3.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":9.4,"date":"2021-02-09","block":11819964,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":189,"adjusted_eth":48.418},{"eth":68,"date":"2022-05-28","block":14862349,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":54,"adjusted_eth":44.9732},{"eth":100,"date":"2022-06-28","block":15037950,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":148,"adjusted_eth":45.7336},{"eth":67.5,"date":"2025-05-13","block":22475252,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":493,"adjusted_eth":42.7448},{"eth":66,"date":"2025-05-26","block":22564430,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":42.8669}],"comparables":[{"eth":42,"date":"2026-10-03","punk":4810,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.6899,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48.88,"date":"2026-07-02","punk":1575,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":46.4643,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39,"date":"2026-04-21","punk":4855,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":42.3289,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46,"date":"2026-04-16","punk":6207,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":53.7876,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.4,"date":"2025-12-11","punk":2535,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.9054,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":43.99,"date":"2025-11-12","punk":6207,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":38.3603,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":50,"date":"2025-10-11","punk":4855,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3504,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":53,"date":"2024-12-03","punk":1575,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.4075,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.291,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Shadow Beard","sales_12m":55}],"summary":["Estimate 43.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 36.7 to 51.1 ETH, 2σ range 31.1 to 60.4 ETH, confidence Low, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Shaved Head -7%, VR +23%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9494","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}