{"punk":9507,"name":"CryptoPunk #9507","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9507","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9507.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Shadow Beard","Vampire Hair","Eye Mask"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":30.3328,"usd":68966,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.8223,"high_eth":33.0698,"low_usd":63258,"high_usd":75188},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.5197,"high_eth":36.0537,"low_usd":58022,"high_usd":81973},"sigma_log":0.0864,"multiple_of_floor":0.9981,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.9336,"usd":68058,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.4561,"high_eth":32.6345,"low_usd":62425,"high_usd":74199},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.1838,"high_eth":35.5792,"low_usd":57259,"high_usd":80894},"sigma_log":0.0864,"multiple_of_floor":0.9981,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":45,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":45,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-10.5,"beta":-0.1109,"term":"attr:Vampire Hair","label":"Vampire Hair","sales_12m":18,"weighted_sales":6.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.25,"date":"2019-09-28","block":8639113,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":93,"adjusted_eth":29.99},{"eth":0.45,"date":"2019-12-30","block":9184752,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":92,"adjusted_eth":30.6716},{"eth":1,"date":"2020-05-20","block":10105891,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":35,"adjusted_eth":36.5732},{"eth":3.89,"date":"2020-09-25","block":10930641,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":140,"adjusted_eth":40.228},{"eth":8.1,"date":"2021-02-09","block":11819052,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":304,"adjusted_eth":41.1727},{"eth":9.99,"date":"2021-02-11","block":11834483,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":78,"adjusted_eth":48.9543},{"eth":20,"date":"2021-03-08","block":12000115,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":83,"adjusted_eth":30.759},{"eth":24,"date":"2021-05-03","block":12362260,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":24,"adjusted_eth":35.2478},{"eth":16,"date":"2021-06-17","block":12652687,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":57,"adjusted_eth":31.3621},{"eth":55,"date":"2021-08-20","block":13059813,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":86,"adjusted_eth":31.7263},{"eth":95,"date":"2021-08-27","block":13109427,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":22,"adjusted_eth":30.9679},{"eth":112,"date":"2021-09-02","block":13147256,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":83,"adjusted_eth":35.3604}],"comparables":[{"eth":32.79,"date":"2026-03-08","punk":2577,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.0101,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.88,"date":"2026-03-06","punk":2577,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4796,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.95,"date":"2025-12-30","punk":9987,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.5275,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48.13,"date":"2025-10-10","punk":4765,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.134,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":43.5,"date":"2025-09-25","punk":8237,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.0678,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46.25,"date":"2025-09-22","punk":8237,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7074,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":43,"date":"2025-03-04","punk":5388,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.8712,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":41.5,"date":"2025-01-15","punk":8237,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":31.1146,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0652,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Shadow Beard","sales_12m":57},{"attribute":"Eye Mask","sales_12m":56}],"summary":["Estimate 30.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 27.8 to 33.1 ETH, 2σ range 25.5 to 36.1 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Vampire Hair -11%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9507","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}