{"punk":9510,"name":"CryptoPunk #9510","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9510","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9510.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Big Beard","Wild Hair"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":35.9822,"usd":87188,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.6962,"high_eth":39.5985,"low_usd":79226,"high_usd":95950},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.7102,"high_eth":43.5783,"low_usd":71990,"high_usd":105594},"sigma_log":0.0958,"multiple_of_floor":1.184,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T09:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":35.9822,"usd":87188,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.6962,"high_eth":39.5985,"low_usd":79226,"high_usd":95950},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.7102,"high_eth":43.5783,"low_usd":71990,"high_usd":105594},"sigma_log":0.0958,"multiple_of_floor":1.184,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T09:04:35.000Z","block":26354795,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":42,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T09:04:35.000Z","block":26354795,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":42,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":150,"ask_usd":335366,"z":14.9,"z_text":"14.9σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2025-05-13T21:54:35.000Z","days_listed":541},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":2.53,"date":"2020-05-22","block":10118373,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":150,"adjusted_eth":76.8867},{"eth":32,"date":"2021-07-12","block":12810369,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":218,"adjusted_eth":51.1832},{"eth":35.5,"date":"2021-07-17","block":12846430,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":170,"adjusted_eth":55.3538},{"eth":129.66,"date":"2021-09-29","block":13318320,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":69,"adjusted_eth":36.6546},{"eth":84.99,"date":"2021-12-31","block":13914990,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":25,"adjusted_eth":40.3885},{"eth":86.99,"date":"2022-06-19","block":14992519,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":166,"adjusted_eth":39.6643},{"eth":53,"date":"2024-09-09","block":20715019,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":185,"adjusted_eth":54.0856}],"comparables":[{"eth":27.62,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":3425,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.6018,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":60,"date":"2026-10-21","punk":5448,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":58.3115,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":38.69,"date":"2026-10-13","punk":1349,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.5772,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-10-01","punk":5448,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.2416,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":60.45,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":1941,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":54.0316,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33.85,"date":"2026-09-03","punk":8816,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.4537,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":140,"date":"2026-08-17","punk":3298,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":132.2537,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":41,"date":"2026-08-05","punk":8123,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.3057,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.1053,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Big Beard","sales_12m":7},{"attribute":"Wild Hair","sales_12m":52}],"summary":["Estimate 36.0 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.7 to 39.6 ETH, 2σ range 29.7 to 43.6 ETH, confidence Low, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9510","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}