{"punk":9519,"name":"CryptoPunk #9519","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9519","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9519.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Mole","Goat","Bandana","Regular Shades"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":28.2612,"usd":68479,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":25.2648,"high_eth":31.613,"low_usd":61219,"high_usd":76601},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":22.586,"high_eth":35.3624,"low_usd":54728,"high_usd":85686},"sigma_log":0.1121,"multiple_of_floor":0.93,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":28.2612,"usd":68479,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":25.2648,"high_eth":31.613,"low_usd":61219,"high_usd":76601},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":22.586,"high_eth":35.3624,"low_usd":54728,"high_usd":85686},"sigma_log":0.1121,"multiple_of_floor":0.93,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":44,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":44,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-6.7,"beta":-0.0698,"term":"attr:Mole","label":"Mole","sales_12m":89,"weighted_sales":22.5},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0762,"term":"attr:Goat","label":"Goat","sales_12m":37,"weighted_sales":16.7},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0357,"term":"attr:Bandana","label":"Bandana","sales_12m":63,"weighted_sales":14.1}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0,"date":"2022-01-25","block":14076419,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":502,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-01-25","block":14076419,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":541,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":64.49,"date":"2022-11-15","block":15973685,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":182,"adjusted_eth":29.4714},{"eth":67.48,"date":"2022-11-26","block":16051843,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":204,"adjusted_eth":31.0715},{"eth":0,"date":"2023-11-26","block":18657363,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":211,"adjusted_eth":null}],"comparables":[{"eth":48.69,"date":"2025-04-15","punk":4426,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.8819,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":31.2,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":9984,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5861,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.88,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":9065,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2527,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.65,"date":"2026-09-17","punk":5866,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3491,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.501,"date":"2026-09-05","punk":5866,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.8811,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.99,"date":"2026-08-31","punk":2687,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.24,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.86,"date":"2026-08-31","punk":9065,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.3165,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.2,"date":"2026-04-28","punk":8788,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.7049,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.1362,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Regular Shades","sales_12m":47}],"summary":["Estimate 28.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 25.3 to 31.6 ETH, 2σ range 22.6 to 35.4 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 07:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Mole -7%, Goat -7%, Bandana -4%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9519","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}