{"punk":9538,"name":"CryptoPunk #9538","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9538","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9538.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Handlebars","Earring","Fedora"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":37.1931,"usd":84563,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.4569,"high_eth":41.3467,"low_usd":76068,"high_usd":94007},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.0958,"high_eth":45.9641,"low_usd":68427,"high_usd":104505},"sigma_log":0.1059,"multiple_of_floor":1.2239,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":36.7036,"usd":83450,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.0165,"high_eth":40.8025,"low_usd":75067,"high_usd":92770},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.6997,"high_eth":45.3591,"low_usd":67526,"high_usd":103130},"sigma_log":0.1059,"multiple_of_floor":1.2239,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":51,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":19.8,"beta":0.1805,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":25.9},{"pct":-6.1,"beta":-0.0634,"term":"attr:Handlebars","label":"Handlebars","sales_12m":33,"weighted_sales":11.8},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":306,"weighted_sales":71.1}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":22.5,"date":"2021-03-23","block":12097107,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":47,"adjusted_eth":33.3222},{"eth":72.5,"date":"2021-08-23","block":13081427,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":100,"adjusted_eth":32.1258},{"eth":98.99,"date":"2021-08-26","block":13101172,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":7,"adjusted_eth":38.8219},{"eth":55,"date":"2025-05-25","block":22562844,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":590,"adjusted_eth":34.8059},{"eth":32.69,"date":"2025-11-28","block":23897666,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":694,"adjusted_eth":31.9444}],"comparables":[{"eth":30,"date":"2026-10-29","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0306,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-10-14","punk":3378,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.629,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-09-17","punk":1607,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.8385,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":36.95,"date":"2026-08-21","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.1489,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.6,"date":"2026-07-19","punk":8992,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.6869,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-07-06","punk":3378,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3567,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.44,"date":"2026-07-04","punk":9018,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.839,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.6,"date":"2026-07-04","punk":1607,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.9869,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.1387,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Fedora","sales_12m":18}],"summary":["Estimate 37.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 33.5 to 41.3 ETH, 2σ range 30.1 to 46.0 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +20%, Handlebars -6%, Earring -2%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9538","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}