{"punk":9539,"name":"CryptoPunk #9539","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9539","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9539.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Purple Lipstick","Pink With Hat","Clown Eyes Green"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":39.5124,"usd":95742,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.4604,"high_eth":45.3051,"low_usd":83500,"high_usd":109778},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.0544,"high_eth":51.9469,"low_usd":72824,"high_usd":125872},"sigma_log":0.1368,"multiple_of_floor":1.3002,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":39.5124,"usd":95742,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.4604,"high_eth":45.3051,"low_usd":83500,"high_usd":109778},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.0544,"high_eth":51.9469,"low_usd":72824,"high_usd":125872},"sigma_log":0.1368,"multiple_of_floor":1.3002,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T07:04:35.000Z","block":26354196,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4,"beta":0.0392,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":42.1},{"pct":29.2,"beta":0.2562,"term":"attr:Pink With Hat","label":"Pink With Hat","sales_12m":9,"weighted_sales":3},{"pct":-4.1,"beta":-0.0424,"term":"attr:Clown Eyes Green","label":"Clown Eyes Green","sales_12m":61,"weighted_sales":9.9}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.15,"date":"2017-12-15","block":4737838,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":56,"adjusted_eth":37.9875},{"eth":0.69,"date":"2018-06-08","block":5754349,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":209.691},{"eth":12,"date":"2020-10-05","block":10997454,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":217,"adjusted_eth":70.1308},{"eth":35,"date":"2021-02-18","block":11878844,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":111,"adjusted_eth":78.6142},{"eth":34.99,"date":"2021-02-21","block":11902441,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":210,"adjusted_eth":53.1673},{"eth":39.99,"date":"2021-02-21","block":11902641,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":157,"adjusted_eth":60.7648},{"eth":47,"date":"2021-04-20","block":12279572,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":18,"adjusted_eth":73.3606},{"eth":34.99,"date":"2021-06-11","block":12610416,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":318,"adjusted_eth":70.8897},{"eth":34.95,"date":"2024-08-30","block":20643948,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":22,"adjusted_eth":35.4044},{"eth":32.25,"date":"2024-10-06","block":20909641,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":155,"adjusted_eth":35.2673}],"comparables":[{"eth":28.994,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":3364,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9233,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.46,"date":"2026-10-28","punk":3364,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.9322,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.48,"date":"2026-07-04","punk":9710,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4275,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.48,"date":"2026-06-25","punk":8999,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.4153,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.98,"date":"2026-04-04","punk":7663,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":34.7221,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.79,"date":"2026-03-11","punk":5629,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8036,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.1899,"date":"2026-02-05","punk":9338,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.6683,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.8,"date":"2025-12-27","punk":7083,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":38.1852,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.2531,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Purple Lipstick","sales_12m":66}],"summary":["Estimate 39.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 34.5 to 45.3 ETH, 2σ range 30.1 to 51.9 ETH, confidence Low, as of 07:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 07:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +4%, Pink With Hat +29%, Clown Eyes Green -4%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9539","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}