{"punk":9561,"name":"CryptoPunk #9561","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9561","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9561.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Big Beard","Headband","Eye Mask"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":33.8918,"usd":82123,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.1873,"high_eth":36.8309,"low_usd":75569,"high_usd":89244},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.6986,"high_eth":40.0248,"low_usd":69539,"high_usd":96983},"sigma_log":0.0832,"multiple_of_floor":1.1152,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":33.8918,"usd":82123,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.1873,"high_eth":36.8309,"low_usd":75569,"high_usd":89244},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.6986,"high_eth":40.0248,"low_usd":69539,"high_usd":96983},"sigma_log":0.0832,"multiple_of_floor":1.1152,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","block":26355395,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":29,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","block":26355395,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":29,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.25,"date":"2019-09-02","block":8472888,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":55,"adjusted_eth":25.325},{"eth":0.6,"date":"2020-01-01","block":9196086,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":18,"adjusted_eth":42.4047},{"eth":0.72,"date":"2020-01-13","block":9273252,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":241,"adjusted_eth":38.3874},{"eth":1.25,"date":"2020-08-01","block":10573198,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":144,"adjusted_eth":42.6826},{"eth":12,"date":"2020-12-25","block":11519683,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":213,"adjusted_eth":82.8818},{"eth":7,"date":"2021-01-16","block":11666167,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":295,"adjusted_eth":46.4476}],"comparables":[{"eth":56.5,"date":"2025-10-07","punk":3745,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.4613,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":59.95,"date":"2025-08-30","punk":6373,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.8626,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":55,"date":"2025-08-23","punk":6373,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.496,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":55,"date":"2025-07-24","punk":6373,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.4357,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":50,"date":"2025-05-13","punk":4414,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.6628,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":72.69,"date":"2025-04-15","punk":1820,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":52.0757,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":49,"date":"2025-02-06","punk":1820,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.7202,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":47,"date":"2024-12-23","punk":3017,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.8067,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0454,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Big Beard","sales_12m":7},{"attribute":"Headband","sales_12m":48},{"attribute":"Eye Mask","sales_12m":55}],"summary":["Estimate 33.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.2 to 36.8 ETH, 2σ range 28.7 to 40.0 ETH, confidence Low, as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 11:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9561","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}