{"punk":9609,"name":"CryptoPunk #9609","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9609","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9609.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Earring","Mohawk","Cigarette","Classic Shades"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":36.626,"usd":88748,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.8703,"high_eth":40.8107,"low_usd":79647,"high_usd":98888},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.4998,"high_eth":45.4736,"low_usd":71480,"high_usd":110186},"sigma_log":0.1082,"multiple_of_floor":1.2052,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T09:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":36.626,"usd":88748,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":32.8703,"high_eth":40.8107,"low_usd":79647,"high_usd":98888},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.4998,"high_eth":45.4736,"low_usd":71480,"high_usd":110186},"sigma_log":0.1082,"multiple_of_floor":1.2052,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T09:04:35.000Z","block":26354795,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":42,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T09:04:35.000Z","block":26354795,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":42,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":19.8,"beta":0.1805,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":25.7},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6},{"pct":-7.6,"beta":-0.0788,"term":"attr:Mohawk","label":"Mohawk","sales_12m":73,"weighted_sales":15.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":25.9,"date":"2021-04-13","block":12231151,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":249,"adjusted_eth":38.8692},{"eth":65,"date":"2021-08-07","block":12974592,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":140,"adjusted_eth":38.1047},{"eth":64.5,"date":"2023-03-31","block":16949960,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":258,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":60.95,"date":"2023-05-26","block":17343279,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":173,"adjusted_eth":36.3262},{"eth":0,"date":"2023-06-10","block":17448148,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":246,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":32,"date":"2024-06-25","block":20171784,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":368,"adjusted_eth":36.5731}],"comparables":[{"eth":28.5,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":9132,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3964,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":34.869,"date":"2026-07-12","punk":2957,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.6655,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":33.25,"date":"2026-07-03","punk":2957,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":31.1488,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-05-16","punk":4777,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3983,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":35.5,"date":"2026-04-22","punk":2830,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.3561,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":27.25,"date":"2026-01-23","punk":9132,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.39,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":27.67,"date":"2025-11-18","punk":2957,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.1693,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":48.99,"date":"2025-08-25","punk":2830,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8753,"shared_attributes":3}],"premium_log":0.123,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110},{"attribute":"Classic Shades","sales_12m":64}],"summary":["Estimate 36.6 ETH (beta), 1σ range 32.9 to 40.8 ETH, 2σ range 29.5 to 45.5 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +20%, Earring -2%, Mohawk -8%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9609","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}