{"punk":965,"name":"CryptoPunk #965","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/965","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/965.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Earring","Purple Hair","Clown Eyes Blue"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":34.3452,"usd":83221,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.5396,"high_eth":37.4004,"low_usd":76423,"high_usd":90624},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.9632,"high_eth":40.7273,"low_usd":70180,"high_usd":98686},"sigma_log":0.0852,"multiple_of_floor":1.1301,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":34.3452,"usd":83221,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.5396,"high_eth":37.4004,"low_usd":76423,"high_usd":90624},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.9632,"high_eth":40.7273,"low_usd":70180,"high_usd":98686},"sigma_log":0.0852,"multiple_of_floor":1.1301,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","block":26353598,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":37,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T05:04:35.000Z","block":26353598,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":37,"stale":false,"label":"as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":69,"ask_usd":154268,"z":8.19,"z_text":"8.2σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2025-08-09T22:32:11.000Z","days_listed":453},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-2.4,"beta":-0.0241,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.6},{"pct":-7.8,"beta":-0.081,"term":"attr:Clown Eyes Blue","label":"Clown Eyes Blue","sales_12m":65,"weighted_sales":6.3}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":3.5,"date":"2020-09-15","block":10864396,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":178,"adjusted_eth":55.1114},{"eth":5.5,"date":"2020-12-25","block":11524208,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":84,"adjusted_eth":37.9875},{"eth":70,"date":"2023-01-04","block":16330910,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":3,"adjusted_eth":32.3298},{"eth":80,"date":"2023-01-04","block":16334150,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":123,"adjusted_eth":36.9483},{"eth":89,"date":"2023-01-17","block":16423368,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":722,"adjusted_eth":40.411},{"eth":45.95,"date":"2025-01-28","block":21724378,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":115,"adjusted_eth":36.2707},{"eth":40.6,"date":"2025-02-03","block":21768162,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":137,"adjusted_eth":30.8999},{"eth":40.4898,"date":"2025-03-01","block":21953875,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":37,"adjusted_eth":35.4709}],"comparables":[{"eth":31.5,"date":"2026-06-05","punk":7036,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9152,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.75,"date":"2026-03-24","punk":4824,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.7745,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.6,"date":"2026-02-05","punk":4824,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.1179,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.5,"date":"2026-02-05","punk":4824,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9998,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.1,"date":"2026-01-03","punk":7917,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.4677,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31,"date":"2025-11-22","punk":7158,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":31.5186,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42,"date":"2025-10-22","punk":6138,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.7277,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":60,"date":"2025-08-05","punk":4234,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":35.4058,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0587,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Purple Hair","sales_12m":6}],"summary":["Estimate 34.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.5 to 37.4 ETH, 2σ range 29.0 to 40.7 ETH, confidence Low, as of 05:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 05:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Earring -2%, Clown Eyes Blue -8%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/965","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}