{"punk":9651,"name":"CryptoPunk #9651","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9651","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9651.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Mole","Silver Chain","Mohawk Thin","Eye Patch"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":31.754,"usd":76943,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.0342,"high_eth":34.7286,"low_usd":70352,"high_usd":84150},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.5474,"high_eth":37.9818,"low_usd":64327,"high_usd":92033},"sigma_log":0.0895,"multiple_of_floor":1.0449,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":31.754,"usd":76943,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.0342,"high_eth":34.7286,"low_usd":70352,"high_usd":84150},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.5474,"high_eth":37.9818,"low_usd":64327,"high_usd":92033},"sigma_log":0.0895,"multiple_of_floor":1.0449,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":35,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":35,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-6.7,"beta":-0.0698,"term":"attr:Mole","label":"Mole","sales_12m":89,"weighted_sales":22.5},{"pct":-10.8,"beta":-0.1137,"term":"attr:Mohawk Thin","label":"Mohawk Thin","sales_12m":51,"weighted_sales":11}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.12,"date":"2018-01-02","block":4843584,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":8,"adjusted_eth":36.8364},{"eth":52,"date":"2021-08-07","block":12979457,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":63,"adjusted_eth":30.4838},{"eth":93,"date":"2022-01-28","block":14091560,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":28,"adjusted_eth":33.2894},{"eth":79,"date":"2022-07-09","block":15107598,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":334,"adjusted_eth":32.1609},{"eth":99,"date":"2022-07-17","block":15159783,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":289,"adjusted_eth":35.9366}],"comparables":[{"eth":47.24,"date":"2025-08-30","punk":7709,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.6234,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":39.9,"date":"2025-01-18","punk":8648,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.552,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":39.99,"date":"2025-01-14","punk":8648,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7138,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":38,"date":"2025-01-08","punk":8648,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":31.2198,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":33.4,"date":"2026-10-04","punk":5635,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.7677,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.32,"date":"2026-09-29","punk":5635,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3283,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.2,"date":"2026-09-29","punk":5635,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.312,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.5,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":5559,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8998,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0197,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Silver Chain","sales_12m":20},{"attribute":"Eye Patch","sales_12m":74}],"summary":["Estimate 31.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.0 to 34.7 ETH, 2σ range 26.5 to 38.0 ETH, confidence Low, as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 12:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Mole -7%, Mohawk Thin -11%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9651","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}