{"punk":9683,"name":"CryptoPunk #9683","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9683","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9683.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Goat","Top Hat"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":39.4617,"usd":89721,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.7469,"high_eth":44.8163,"low_usd":79002,"high_usd":101896},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.5955,"high_eth":50.8973,"low_usd":69563,"high_usd":115722},"sigma_log":0.1272,"multiple_of_floor":1.2985,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":38.9423,"usd":88540,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":34.2896,"high_eth":44.2264,"low_usd":77962,"high_usd":100554},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.1928,"high_eth":50.2274,"low_usd":68647,"high_usd":114198},"sigma_log":0.1272,"multiple_of_floor":1.2985,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T23:04:35.000Z","block":26351802,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":47,"stale":false,"label":"as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":102.4},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0761,"term":"attr:Goat","label":"Goat","sales_12m":38,"weighted_sales":16.8},{"pct":30.2,"beta":0.2642,"term":"attr:Top Hat","label":"Top Hat","sales_12m":6,"weighted_sales":1.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":1.5,"date":"2020-01-20","block":9321225,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":121,"adjusted_eth":66.1544},{"eth":1.95,"date":"2020-02-06","block":9430206,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":52,"adjusted_eth":92.8262},{"eth":5.3,"date":"2021-01-02","block":11576585,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":223,"adjusted_eth":29.7097},{"eth":12.9,"date":"2021-01-03","block":11580513,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":60,"adjusted_eth":76.7601},{"eth":12.99,"date":"2021-02-01","block":11766991,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":283,"adjusted_eth":76.3863},{"eth":36,"date":"2021-05-15","block":12438948,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":32,"adjusted_eth":69.6542},{"eth":45.69,"date":"2021-07-26","block":12903021,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":77,"adjusted_eth":62.3121},{"eth":53.9,"date":"2021-07-30","block":12929751,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":35,"adjusted_eth":62.3635},{"eth":99,"date":"2021-08-05","block":12966546,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":233,"adjusted_eth":66.8094}],"comparables":[{"eth":42,"date":"2026-08-03","punk":6648,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.0446,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.45,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":8233,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0156,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30.53,"date":"2026-10-28","punk":8233,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.628,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":53,"date":"2026-10-20","punk":1424,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":50.8305,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":35.17,"date":"2026-10-03","punk":1241,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.9718,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-10-02","punk":2224,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.9991,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":34.4999,"date":"2026-09-25","punk":9142,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.711,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":9142,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8209,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.1979,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 39.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 34.7 to 44.8 ETH, 2σ range 30.6 to 50.9 ETH, confidence Low, as of 23:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 23:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Goat -7%, Top Hat +30%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9683","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}