{"punk":9708,"name":"CryptoPunk #9708","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9708","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9708.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Mohawk Thin","Cigarette","Small Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":33.2885,"usd":80661,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.6932,"high_eth":36.1032,"low_usd":74372,"high_usd":87481},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.3002,"high_eth":39.156,"low_usd":68574,"high_usd":94878},"sigma_log":0.0812,"multiple_of_floor":1.0954,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":33.2885,"usd":80661,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.6932,"high_eth":36.1032,"low_usd":74372,"high_usd":87481},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.3002,"high_eth":39.156,"low_usd":68574,"high_usd":94878},"sigma_log":0.0812,"multiple_of_floor":1.0954,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":32,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":32,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10.1,"beta":0.0958,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":88.6},{"pct":-10.8,"beta":-0.1137,"term":"attr:Mohawk Thin","label":"Mohawk Thin","sales_12m":51,"weighted_sales":11}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.3,"date":"2017-07-19","block":4044627,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":12,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":0.22,"date":"2017-09-18","block":4285666,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":79,"adjusted_eth":35.1884},{"eth":1,"date":"2020-05-22","block":10115094,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":177,"adjusted_eth":30.39},{"eth":1.98,"date":"2020-09-15","block":10868430,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":284,"adjusted_eth":31.1773},{"eth":2.12,"date":"2020-09-21","block":10908745,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":16,"adjusted_eth":30.6794},{"eth":4.9,"date":"2020-09-28","block":10951813,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":208,"adjusted_eth":25.7187},{"eth":9,"date":"2021-02-14","block":11853448,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":130,"adjusted_eth":33.1527},{"eth":12,"date":"2021-02-17","block":11876963,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":190,"adjusted_eth":28.3137},{"eth":21,"date":"2021-02-22","block":11903522,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":285,"adjusted_eth":27.157},{"eth":24.25,"date":"2021-03-21","block":12082109,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":151,"adjusted_eth":35.1099}],"comparables":[{"eth":33.94,"date":"2026-06-25","punk":5842,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.7544,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.5,"date":"2026-06-03","punk":5842,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0745,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.95,"date":"2026-04-17","punk":6508,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7059,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":26.69,"date":"2026-04-12","punk":6508,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2397,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.45,"date":"2026-04-11","punk":6508,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.0815,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.4,"date":"2025-12-01","punk":8343,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.2051,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.8,"date":"2025-11-18","punk":3123,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2427,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":43,"date":"2025-07-20","punk":2451,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.6565,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0275,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Cigarette","sales_12m":110},{"attribute":"Small Shades","sales_12m":44}],"summary":["Estimate 33.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 30.7 to 36.1 ETH, 2σ range 28.3 to 39.2 ETH, confidence High, as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 10:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Mohawk Thin -11%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9708","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}