{"punk":9763,"name":"CryptoPunk #9763","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9763","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9763.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Earring","Knitted Cap","Classic Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":31.5303,"usd":76400,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.8795,"high_eth":33.2722,"low_usd":72400,"high_usd":80621},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.3152,"high_eth":35.1104,"low_usd":68610,"high_usd":85075},"sigma_log":0.0538,"multiple_of_floor":1.0375,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","basis":"daily close"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":31.5303,"usd":76400,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.8795,"high_eth":33.2722,"low_usd":72400,"high_usd":80621},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.3152,"high_eth":35.1104,"low_usd":68610,"high_usd":85075},"sigma_log":0.0538,"multiple_of_floor":1.0375,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"daily close","as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","block":null,"eth":30.39,"punk":null,"public_asks":null,"age_minutes":62,"stale":false,"label":"as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"daily close","as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","block":null,"eth":30.39,"punk":null,"public_asks":null,"age_minutes":62,"stale":false,"label":"as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":2.8,"beta":0.0274,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":52.7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":12.12,"date":"2021-02-17","block":11872776,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":277,"adjusted_eth":28.5968},{"eth":22.6,"date":"2021-02-22","block":11903993,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":62,"adjusted_eth":29.2261},{"eth":24.88,"date":"2021-03-13","block":12033327,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":88,"adjusted_eth":34.4153},{"eth":30,"date":"2021-05-05","block":12371170,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":350,"adjusted_eth":45.585},{"eth":23.69,"date":"2021-07-19","block":12860110,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":76,"adjusted_eth":36.4526},{"eth":75.88,"date":"2022-03-20","block":14422973,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":58,"adjusted_eth":32.0499},{"eth":75,"date":"2022-08-12","block":15325315,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":109,"adjusted_eth":31.6782},{"eth":64,"date":"2022-12-16","block":16194545,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":30.5379},{"eth":68.6,"date":"2023-01-05","block":16341706,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":95,"adjusted_eth":31.449},{"eth":43.79,"date":"2025-09-25","block":23441726,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":483,"adjusted_eth":29.6519},{"eth":44.8,"date":"2025-09-27","block":23455531,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"relay-same-block","log_index":10,"adjusted_eth":30.3223},{"eth":44.8051,"date":"2025-09-27","block":23455531,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":14,"adjusted_eth":30.3258},{"eth":53.7661,"date":"2025-10-08","block":23535825,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":159,"adjusted_eth":33.7036},{"eth":40,"date":"2025-10-22","block":23633324,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":33,"adjusted_eth":31.1692},{"eth":31,"date":"2025-12-11","block":23992521,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":234,"adjusted_eth":31.4554}],"comparables":[{"eth":32.2,"date":"2026-08-20","punk":5067,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.1931,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.689,"date":"2026-06-16","punk":2903,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3798,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":46.5,"date":"2025-09-11","punk":5026,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3053,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":45,"date":"2025-09-10","punk":5026,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.4097,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":48.3,"date":"2025-09-09","punk":8693,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9018,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":54,"date":"2025-08-09","punk":5026,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8537,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":53.98,"date":"2025-07-31","punk":4449,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.5472,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":70,"date":"2025-07-29","punk":9663,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":40.1529,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0274,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Earring","sales_12m":303},{"attribute":"Knitted Cap","sales_12m":49},{"attribute":"Classic Shades","sales_12m":64}],"summary":["Estimate 31.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.9 to 33.3 ETH, 2σ range 28.3 to 35.1 ETH, confidence High, as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +3%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9763","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}