{"punk":9770,"name":"CryptoPunk #9770","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9770","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9770.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Black Lipstick","Mole","Stringy Hair","Green Eye Shadow"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":30.7316,"usd":74465,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.1159,"high_eth":32.4369,"low_usd":70550,"high_usd":78597},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.5851,"high_eth":34.2369,"low_usd":66841,"high_usd":82959},"sigma_log":0.054,"multiple_of_floor":1.0112,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","basis":"daily close"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.7316,"usd":74465,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.1159,"high_eth":32.4369,"low_usd":70550,"high_usd":78597},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.5851,"high_eth":34.2369,"low_usd":66841,"high_usd":82959},"sigma_log":0.054,"multiple_of_floor":1.0112,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"daily close","as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","block":null,"eth":30.39,"punk":null,"public_asks":null,"age_minutes":57,"stale":false,"label":"as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"daily close","as_of":"2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z","block":null,"eth":30.39,"punk":null,"public_asks":null,"age_minutes":57,"stale":false,"label":"as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":407,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 4+","terms":[{"pct":2.8,"beta":0.0274,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":52.7},{"pct":-2.5,"beta":-0.0257,"term":"attr:Stringy Hair","label":"Stringy Hair","sales_12m":96,"weighted_sales":12.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 4+","seen":{"n":135,"cover1":0.6,"cover2":0.815,"bias_pct":-0.9,"within10":0.763,"within25":0.933,"MdALE_pct":4.5},"thin":false,"sigma":0.054,"selection":{"n":177,"cover1":0.712,"cover2":0.921,"bias_pct":-0.5,"within10":0.819,"within25":0.966,"MdALE_pct":3.4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":1.2,"date":"2020-09-13","block":10852687,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":69,"adjusted_eth":26.4261},{"eth":1.5,"date":"2020-09-13","block":10852890,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":46,"adjusted_eth":33.0326},{"eth":12.5,"date":"2021-02-17","block":11877148,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":53,"adjusted_eth":29.4934},{"eth":17.77,"date":"2021-02-21","block":11902317,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":80,"adjusted_eth":27.0015},{"eth":35.95,"date":"2021-08-05","block":12965265,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":32,"adjusted_eth":24.5842},{"eth":40,"date":"2021-08-05","block":12967121,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":478,"adjusted_eth":27.3537},{"eth":41.85,"date":"2021-08-05","block":12967702,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":91,"adjusted_eth":28.6188},{"eth":44.49,"date":"2021-08-06","block":12968923,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":135,"adjusted_eth":27.5929},{"eth":61.98,"date":"2022-04-26","block":14658067,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":109,"adjusted_eth":30.4047}],"comparables":[{"eth":58.0591,"date":"2025-10-06","punk":1339,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.2303,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":47,"date":"2025-07-20","punk":6383,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.2292,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":42,"date":"2025-07-20","punk":4348,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.0133,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":36.9,"date":"2025-07-04","punk":4348,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.761,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":45.5,"date":"2025-06-05","punk":6383,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5242,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":34.69,"date":"2025-03-02","punk":4348,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2923,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":37.5,"date":"2024-12-18","punk":4348,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.3207,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":31.5,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":4075,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2301,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0017,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Black Lipstick","sales_12m":95},{"attribute":"Mole","sales_12m":89},{"attribute":"Green Eye Shadow","sales_12m":32}],"summary":["Estimate 30.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.1 to 32.4 ETH, 2σ range 27.6 to 34.2 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 00:00 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +3%, Stringy Hair -3%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 4+ sales landed within ±3.4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9770","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}