{"punk":9781,"name":"CryptoPunk #9781","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9781","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9781.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Crazy Hair","Regular Shades"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":30.6779,"usd":74335,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.1235,"high_eth":32.3154,"low_usd":70569,"high_usd":78303},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.6477,"high_eth":34.0403,"low_usd":66993,"high_usd":82482},"sigma_log":0.052,"multiple_of_floor":1.0095,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.6779,"usd":74335,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.1235,"high_eth":32.3154,"low_usd":70569,"high_usd":78303},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.6477,"high_eth":34.0403,"low_usd":66993,"high_usd":82482},"sigma_log":0.052,"multiple_of_floor":1.0095,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":34,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T10:04:35.000Z","block":26355095,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":34,"stale":false,"label":"as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":405,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.69,"date":"2020-01-04","block":9215835,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":62,"adjusted_eth":45.585},{"eth":1.2,"date":"2020-07-03","block":10387052,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":156,"adjusted_eth":41.4409},{"eth":9,"date":"2021-02-08","block":11818796,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":175,"adjusted_eth":46.3576},{"eth":19,"date":"2021-07-06","block":12775379,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":69,"adjusted_eth":32.0783},{"eth":46.66,"date":"2021-08-06","block":12968447,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":80,"adjusted_eth":28.9387},{"eth":43.99,"date":"2021-08-06","block":12974027,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":130,"adjusted_eth":27.2828},{"eth":82,"date":"2021-08-25","block":13096424,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":307,"adjusted_eth":31.6442},{"eth":117,"date":"2021-08-28","block":13112551,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":184,"adjusted_eth":25.8221}],"comparables":[{"eth":45.84,"date":"2025-05-10","punk":6939,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0677,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":45,"date":"2025-05-09","punk":6939,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4984,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":42.99,"date":"2025-04-08","punk":4089,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.6826,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.49,"date":"2024-11-12","punk":4089,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.7129,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.9807,"date":"2026-10-31","punk":1930,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.959,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":28.88,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":874,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8017,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.6,"date":"2026-10-15","punk":1930,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0269,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.86,"date":"2026-10-15","punk":1930,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2819,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Crazy Hair","sales_12m":59},{"attribute":"Regular Shades","sales_12m":47}],"summary":["Estimate 30.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.1 to 32.3 ETH, 2σ range 27.6 to 34.0 ETH, confidence High, as of 10:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 10:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","No attribute of this punk has a clear premium in recent sales, so the estimate is the type multiple.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9781","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}