{"punk":9809,"name":"CryptoPunk #9809","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9809","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9809.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Top Hat","Eye Patch"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":47.9205,"usd":116115,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":38.7812,"high_eth":59.2137,"low_usd":93970,"high_usd":143480},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.3849,"high_eth":73.1682,"low_usd":76048,"high_usd":177293},"sigma_log":0.2116,"multiple_of_floor":1.5769,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":47.9205,"usd":116115,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":38.7812,"high_eth":59.2137,"low_usd":93970,"high_usd":143480},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.3849,"high_eth":73.1682,"low_usd":76048,"high_usd":177293},"sigma_log":0.2116,"multiple_of_floor":1.5769,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","block":26353297,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T04:04:23.000Z","block":26353297,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":43,"stale":false,"label":"as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6},{"pct":30.2,"beta":0.2639,"term":"attr:Top Hat","label":"Top Hat","sales_12m":6,"weighted_sales":1.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":98.09,"date":"2021-07-31","block":12930609,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":242,"adjusted_eth":99.3983},{"eth":113,"date":"2022-03-28","block":14474879,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":93,"adjusted_eth":48.3672},{"eth":124.99,"date":"2022-04-25","block":14652527,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":17,"adjusted_eth":61.2751},{"eth":161,"date":"2022-07-15","block":15148144,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":462,"adjusted_eth":61.9733},{"eth":97.99,"date":"2024-01-21","block":19054073,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":66,"adjusted_eth":48.4608}],"comparables":[{"eth":40,"date":"2024-11-09","punk":8881,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":45.8717,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.99,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":9585,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9696,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":35,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":5394,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.3289,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.35,"date":"2026-10-23","punk":8427,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.7725,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":55,"date":"2026-10-14","punk":8264,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":53.418,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33.311,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":9787,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0481,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":37,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":5942,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.0715,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":34.45,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":4059,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.7922,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.3918,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Eye Patch","sales_12m":74}],"summary":["Estimate 47.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 38.8 to 59.2 ETH, 2σ range 31.4 to 73.2 ETH, confidence Low, as of 04:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 04:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Top Hat +30%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9809","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}