{"punk":9815,"name":"CryptoPunk #9815","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9815","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9815.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Muttonchops","Mohawk Dark","Clown Eyes Green"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-04","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-05T00:20:43.410Z","fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"estimate":{"eth":28.9104,"usd":65732,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":26.2114,"high_eth":31.8874,"low_usd":59595,"high_usd":72500},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":23.7643,"high_eth":35.171,"low_usd":54031,"high_usd":79966},"sigma_log":0.098,"multiple_of_floor":0.9513,"n1_eth":32.3769,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-04","eth":28.5299,"usd":64866,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":25.8664,"high_eth":31.4677,"low_usd":58811,"high_usd":71546},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":23.4515,"high_eth":34.7081,"low_usd":53320,"high_usd":78913},"sigma_log":0.098,"multiple_of_floor":0.9513,"n1_eth":31.9507,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":29.99,"fingerprint_sha256":"3481057d321702992d48e1d2137f91c25ef6c1076787f042b28adb0686e4e119"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":56,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-04","eth":29.99,"eth_usd":2273.6272778684292,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-05T21:04:35.000Z","block":26351205,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1163,"age_minutes":56,"stale":false,"label":"as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"public_asks":744,"punk":3425}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.7,"beta":0.0457,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":10,"beta":0.0957,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":89.3},{"pct":-9.3,"beta":-0.0973,"term":"attr:Muttonchops","label":"Muttonchops","sales_12m":48,"weighted_sales":15.8},{"pct":-7.6,"beta":-0.0795,"term":"attr:Mohawk Dark","label":"Mohawk Dark","sales_12m":53,"weighted_sales":13.6},{"pct":-7.5,"beta":-0.0779,"term":"attr:Clown Eyes Green","label":"Clown Eyes Green","sales_12m":61,"weighted_sales":8.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.3,"date":"2017-07-22","block":4055798,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":43,"adjusted_eth":31.0241},{"eth":24,"date":"2021-05-03","block":12362270,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":54,"adjusted_eth":35.2478},{"eth":23.3,"date":"2021-05-03","block":12362365,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":159,"adjusted_eth":34.2197},{"eth":16.85,"date":"2021-06-29","block":12726886,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":235,"adjusted_eth":29.042},{"eth":77.77,"date":"2021-11-09","block":13579411,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":43,"adjusted_eth":27.7657},{"eth":59,"date":"2022-04-12","block":14570570,"source":"native-bid","excluded":"twin-of-nominal-24h","log_index":5,"adjusted_eth":29.5148},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-04-12","block":14571519,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":142,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":0,"date":"2022-04-12","block":14571519,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":146,"adjusted_eth":null}],"comparables":[{"eth":31.5,"date":"2026-06-30","punk":8062,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5491,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39,"date":"2025-12-22","punk":8408,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":43.351,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":44,"date":"2025-09-03","punk":2959,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":27.4966,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":54.47,"date":"2025-08-04","punk":812,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.7195,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":49,"date":"2025-07-23","punk":812,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.15,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":52,"date":"2025-07-18","punk":2959,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.0454,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":39,"date":"2025-06-30","punk":8062,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9977,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":45.85,"date":"2025-05-13","punk":2959,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.6527,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.1132,"type_multiple":{"sales":778,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0654,"median_multiple":1.0654},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 28.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 26.2 to 31.9 ETH, 2σ range 23.8 to 35.2 ETH, confidence High, as of 21:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-04).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 21:04 UTC; 30.0 ETH at the close of 2026-11-04.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (778 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Muttonchops -9%, Mohawk Dark -8%, Clown Eyes Green -8%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9815","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}