{"punk":9829,"name":"CryptoPunk #9829","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9829","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9829.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Cowboy Hat","Big Shades"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":71.9683,"usd":174385,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":47.8966,"high_eth":108.1377,"low_usd":116057,"high_usd":262027},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.8764,"high_eth":162.4849,"low_usd":77239,"high_usd":393714},"sigma_log":0.4072,"multiple_of_floor":2.3682,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":71.9683,"usd":174385,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":47.8966,"high_eth":108.1377,"low_usd":116057,"high_usd":262027},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":31.8764,"high_eth":162.4849,"low_usd":77239,"high_usd":393714},"sigma_log":0.4072,"multiple_of_floor":2.3682,"n1_eth":32.3864,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","block":26355395,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":31,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T11:04:35.000Z","block":26355395,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1162,"age_minutes":31,"stale":false,"label":"as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39,"public_asks":745,"punk":3425}},"listing":{"ask_eth":150,"ask_usd":335366,"z":1.8,"z_text":"1.8σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2024-11-15T16:21:47.000Z","days_listed":720},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.6,"beta":0.0454,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.6,"beta":0.1184,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":66.5},{"pct":-3.5,"beta":-0.0359,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":101.6},{"pct":95.5,"beta":0.6705,"term":"attr:Cowboy Hat","label":"Cowboy Hat","sales_12m":10,"weighted_sales":2.9}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":60,"date":"2024-07-07","block":20252960,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":45,"adjusted_eth":70.977}],"comparables":[{"eth":85,"date":"2025-02-04","punk":7585,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":64.692,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":43.5,"date":"2026-10-16","punk":6687,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":42.644,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33.5,"date":"2026-10-11","punk":3739,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.3298,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33.94,"date":"2026-10-05","punk":4341,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2746,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-09-28","punk":4341,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7853,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.374,"date":"2026-09-25","punk":4341,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.3009,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.1,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":4341,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0808,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":4341,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.987,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.7985,"type_multiple":{"sales":772,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0657,"median_multiple":1.0657},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Big Shades","sales_12m":81}],"summary":["Estimate 72.0 ETH (beta), 1σ range 47.9 to 108 ETH, 2σ range 31.9 to 162 ETH, confidence Low, as of 11:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 11:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (772 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -4%, Cowboy Hat +96%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9829","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}