{"punk":9851,"name":"CryptoPunk #9851","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9851","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9851.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Mole","Clown Hair Green","Regular Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-05","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-06T00:20:36.384Z","fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"estimate":{"eth":31.5303,"usd":76400,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.8795,"high_eth":33.2722,"low_usd":72400,"high_usd":80621},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.3152,"high_eth":35.1104,"low_usd":68610,"high_usd":85075},"sigma_log":0.0538,"multiple_of_floor":1.0375,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-05","eth":31.5303,"usd":76400,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.8795,"high_eth":33.2722,"low_usd":72400,"high_usd":80621},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.3152,"high_eth":35.1104,"low_usd":68610,"high_usd":85075},"sigma_log":0.0538,"multiple_of_floor":1.0375,"n1_eth":30.6779,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.39,"fingerprint_sha256":"28fb24ec0a4377e5ef5227eb5d7b42a3750c93b8b338f0430ec1b75165a89dc1"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":30,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-05","eth":30.39,"eth_usd":2423.081896592348,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.39},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-06T12:04:23.000Z","block":26355693,"eth":30.39,"punk":3425,"public_asks":1161,"age_minutes":30,"stale":false,"label":"as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-06","eth":30.4,"public_asks":405,"punk":6263}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":2.8,"beta":0.0274,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":52.7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":17.5,"date":"2021-04-01","block":12154009,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":261,"adjusted_eth":34.3334},{"eth":24.5,"date":"2021-04-16","block":12249870,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":68,"adjusted_eth":38.6782},{"eth":139.88,"date":"2021-10-12","block":13405575,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":36,"adjusted_eth":41.676},{"eth":57,"date":"2022-05-16","block":14783093,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":82,"adjusted_eth":32.1378},{"eth":70,"date":"2022-07-26","block":15217011,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":41,"adjusted_eth":28.9429},{"eth":67.45,"date":"2022-08-31","block":15444487,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":525,"adjusted_eth":30.617},{"eth":66.99,"date":"2022-09-28","block":15632113,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":120,"adjusted_eth":30.0757},{"eth":68.99,"date":"2022-11-27","block":16063920,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":155,"adjusted_eth":31.7908}],"comparables":[{"eth":31.9949,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":4554,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9823,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.95,"date":"2026-09-05","punk":4554,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":28.3228,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28,"date":"2026-04-22","punk":4554,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.464,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":54.39,"date":"2025-08-10","punk":4554,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4404,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.88,"date":"2026-10-30","punk":874,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8017,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-10-26","punk":4381,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8883,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.91,"date":"2026-10-15","punk":6239,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2922,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":51.5,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":6326,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":47.7889,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.0274,"type_multiple":{"sales":440,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0095,"median_multiple":1.0095},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Mole","sales_12m":89},{"attribute":"Clown Hair Green","sales_12m":15},{"attribute":"Regular Shades","sales_12m":47}],"summary":["Estimate 31.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.9 to 33.3 ETH, 2σ range 28.3 to 35.1 ETH, confidence Low, as of 12:04 UTC, floor 30.39 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-05).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 12:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-05.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (440 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +3%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9851","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}